Market Analysis and Publications

Clients of ESAI’s Northeast Power Service receive weekly, monthly, and quarterly market analysis reports via email or the web. These reports offer an in-depth regional view of the Northeast energy markets as well as a comprehensive view of capacity, congestion and transmission issues. There is also information our clients use to make strategic and tactical decisions based on our proprietary insight and modeling capabilities, and our vast practical experience. Northeast reports focus on a multitude of issues, some of which are: price forecasts from one-week to six-months to 10-years out, nodal and zonal price analysis, gas issues in relation to power pricing, project outlooks, and thought leadership on policies and the market.

Northeast Energywatch QuarterlyTM

A quarterly analysis of market and policy issues that will affect energy pricing dynamics over the longer term in both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes ten-year forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. The dynamics of market policy changes are analyzed and the impacts assessed on energy prices. These impacts are often placed in the context of high level benchmark economics for theoretical plants in specific locations. The report provides annual 7 x 24 data resolution, but clients can request monthly on and offpeak data. Also included is ESAI’s long term natural gas outlook, which reflects fundamental analysis, regional basis spreads, LNG projects under consideration and key LNG issues in the market.

Northeast Energywatch MonthlyTM

Six-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.

Northeast Bi-Weekly

One week outlooks issued Monday and Thursday which provide energy price forecasts (for NE HUB, NY Zones J & A, PJM) and a summary of key market drivers.

Capacity WatchTM

A quarterly analysis of capacity markets and capacity policy issues. This report includes an evaluation of the outlook for construction of each generation project in the Northeast. Every project is assigned a "probability of completion" factor in percentage terms that is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impact on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values over a 10-year period is developed in each issue. ESAI’s project database (Project Evaluation Program) is available to our clients by request.

Transmission WatchTM & Memos

An in-depth look at the essential elements for increased transmission investment and building to support a North American Transmission Expansion Plan. There are quarterly reports and monthly insights into transmission concerns, the financing of projects, best practices, key policy changes, merchant vs. independent build, and future efforts in the context of the major RTO pools in North America. Clients gain access to ESAI’s transmission specific data, which includes details and implications for significant transmission projects under consideration in North America.

Congestion WatchTM

A monthly report which assesses the next month’s congestion and nodal pricing dynamics in the Northeast, including forecasts of the congestion component for each major zone in the Northeast pools. This report allows limited specific nodal analysis to be conducted by request, the data for which is delivered electronically. Report is issued prior to the FTR auction closing date typically between the 12th and 14th of the month.

Natural Gas FundWatchTM

One-week outlook and analysis of key near term factors in the natural gas market. This includes a fundamental overview, a technical trend analysis and a comprehensive look at the commodity fund (Wall Street traders) positions on the NYMEX exchange. Each of these factors is weighted to provide the client with a near term bullish/bearish forecast of market price direction.

Data Analysis & Access to ESAI Power’s Analyst Team

ESAI provides customized views of its proprietary databases based on our client needs and interests, and data sets are sent regularly or infrequently, as mutually agreed upon by both parties. Likewise, all clients have access to ESAI’s analyst team for research clarifications, decision support, and data customization on-the-fly and as-needed.

Our project work includes; specific requests, asset valuations, white papers, LMP modeling, RFP replies for specific studies, multi-client studies and other work of a particular nature for our clients.

All of these factors combine to form a holistic view of the markets, and afford ESAI the ability to help our clients leverage and capitalize on shifting power market dynamics and opportunities.

Northeast Power Service Advisory Services

In addition to the services above, ESAI Power is fully aware that many energy companies have genuine interests in leveraging their positions as participants in US power markets. Thinking about these opportunities, and having our experts "on staff" can be exactly what is needed to move business forward.

As examples of how we can help accomplish this, here are activities ESAI can and does provide:

  • Conduct quarterly conference calls and/or live presentations on site to discuss and strategize about market issues.
  • Conduct specific asset valuation and economic due diligence work.
  • Act as a sounding board for presentations to deliver to executives.
  • Customize quarterly reports to reflect updated client specific data.
  • Conduct strategy sessions around a defined topic or issue.

To accomplish these kinds of engagements and more we recommend "buckets" or defined hours of "advisory" time, as an additional value-add to basic service, depending on individual needs. ESAI Power is very interested in supporting the business practices of energy market participants and we offer the "advisory" time above at a preferred client rate for ESAI Power’s Northeast Power Service members.

When taken in totality all of the factors mentioned above combine to form a holistic view of the markets, and afford ESAI Power the ability to help not only our clients but other power market participants leverage and capitalize on shifting power market dynamics and opportunities.


 
For more information about ESAI Power & Renewables, please contact Director of Business Development Tommy Sutro at tsutro@esai.com