Our Power Practice publishes the NORTHEAST US BAL-WEEK OUTLOOK and NORTHEAST US BALANCE BI-WEEKLY.

Northeast US Bal-Week Outlook - 10.27.09

Here is a sample of information from our October 27, 2009 Northeast US Bal-Week Outlook
Mild Weather, Soft Loads Likely to Keep Heat Rates & Prices Stable

SUMMARY: Very mild and unseasonably warm weather is again expected throughout the Northeast this week. The mid-day highs near 60 degrees and overnight lows around 50 degrees are about 2 to 4 degrees above normal for PJM and New York, and will keep peak loads subdued and stem the rise in natural gas prices this week. Slightly cooler weather is expected in New England but is still warmer than normal. No large variations in weather demand, or peak loads is expected this week, and generation outages are expected to remain stable this week. New England’s forecast generator outages have been reduced by about 500 MW this week. Seabrook is expected to be back online over the weekend.

We expect natural gas prices to continue to soften marginally this week. Delivered gas prices were off 30 cents/MMBtu for Tuesday delivery and we expect the softening trend to continue to keep gas prices under wraps for the rest of the week. Soft gas prices and stable heat rates should keep power prices soft and stable this week.


NORTHEAST US BALANCE BI-WEEKLY - 10.27.09

Here is a sample of information from our October 30,2009 Northeast US Balance Next-Week Outlook .
Mild Weather, Soft Loads Likely to Keep Heat Rates & Prices Stable

SUMMARY: Increasing Generator Outages to Boost PJM WH Heat Rate’s Temperatures will swing from warmer than normal this week, to cooler than normal next week. Weather related heating demand won’t increase in a meaningful enough way to shock electrical loads, however. Peak loads are expected to rise modestly. The Mid-Atlantic region can expect an increase in peak loads of about 2,000 MW, while NY may see an increase of 1,000 MW. This should boost heat rates in those regions and particularly in PJM where generator outages are expected to jump. A significant increase in generator outages in the Mid-Atlantic region will boost on-peak heat rates at Western Hub. Week over week, about 2,000 MW will become unavailable in eastern PJM; raising the regional total to around 14,500 MW. Onpeak heat rates at PJM WH will likely rise to above 10,000 btu/kwh.


 
For more information about ESAI Power & Renewables, please contact Director of Business Development Tommy Sutro at tsutro@esai.com