Our clients receive weekly, monthly, and quarterly market analysis reports via email or the web. These reports offer an in-depth regional view of the Northeast energy markets as well as a comprehensive view of capacity, congestion, transmission, gas, emissions, and general market direction issues. There is also information our clients use to make strategic and tactical decisions based on our proprietary insight and modeling capabilities, and our vast practical experience. Northeast reports focus on a multitude of issues, some of which are: price forecasts from one week to 10-years out, nodal and zonal price analysis, gas issues in relation to power pricing, project outlooks, and thought leadership on policies and the market. The current suite of reports is comprised of:
Capacity Watch™ – A quarterly analysis of capacity markets and capacity policy issues and our cornerstone publication. This report includes ESAI’s outlook for regional capacity prices for the next 10-years, commentary on current market design, as well as an evaluation of the outlook for construction of each generation project in the Northeast. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impact on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values over the 10-year period is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s project database (Project Evaluation Program) is included with each publication. Capacity Watch™ is published in the first month of each quarter.
Transmission Watch™ & Memos – An in-depth look at the essential elements for increased transmission investment and building to support a North American Transmission Expansion Plan. There are quarterly reports and monthly insights into transmission concerns, the financing of projects, best practices, key policy changes, merchant vs. independent build, and future efforts in the context of the major RTO pools in North America. Clients gain access to ESAI’s transmission specific data, which includes details and implications for significant transmission projects under consideration in North America. Transmission Watch™ & Memos is published in the second month of each quarter with Memos produced on the shoulder months.
Northeast EnergyWatch Quarterly™ – A quarterly analysis of market and policy issues that will affect energy pricing dynamics over the longer term in both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes ten-year forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. The dynamics of market policy changes are analyzed and the impacts assessed on energy prices. These impacts are often placed in the context of high level benchmark economics for theoretical plants in specific locations. The report provides annual 7 x 24 data resolution, but clients can request monthly on and off-peak data. Also included is ESAI’s long term natural gas outlook, which reflects fundamental analysis, regional basis spreads, LNG projects under consideration and key LNG issues in the market. Northeast EnergyWatch Quarterly™ is published in the third month of each quarter.
Northeast EnergyWatch Monthly™ – Six-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.
Northeast Bi-Weekly™ – One week outlooks issued Monday and Thursday which provide energy price forecasts (for NE HUB, NY Zones J & A, PJM) and a summary of key market drivers.
Emissions Watch™ – This quarterly publication contains our outlooks and views on the emissions markets. ESAI provides regular updates and analysis on major federal regulations, including CSAPR and the status of implementing federal CO2 regulations amid the impending repeal of the Clean Power Plan. In addition, regular updates are provided on the RGGI program as well as other state-specific emissions programs. ESAI’s allowance price expectations are provided for SO2, NOx (annual and seasonal), and RGGI.
Congestion Watch™ – A monthly report which assesses the next month’s congestion and nodal pricing dynamics in the Northeast, including forecasts of the congestion component for each major zone in the Northeast pools. Report is issued prior to the FTR auction closing date typically between the 12th and 14th of the month.
Natural Gas FundWatch™ – One-week outlook and analysis of key near term factors in the natural gas market. This includes a fundamental overview, a technical trend analysis and a comprehensive look at the commodity fund (Wall Street traders) positions on the NYMEX exchange. Each of these factors is weighted to provide the client with a near term bullish/bearish forecast of market price direction.
A key ingredient of our Northeast Power Service is the interactivity between our clients and the analyst team here at ESAI. Included with access to our publications is unlimited engagement with our analysts. We provide customized views of our proprietary databases based on our client needs and interests. Data sets are sent as mutually agreed upon with each respective client, and the analyst team is available whenever necessary for calls, electronic discussions, Q&A, or other engagements. This access to ESAI’s analysts for research clarifications, decision support, and data customization provides an opportunity for us to assist with specific client business issues and act as an extension of a clients’ own analytical team. Strict protocols are in place to protect each clients confidentiality and IP. This is where ESAI differentiates itself from other practices by drilling down with each client and bringing our syndicated offering to “life” by focusing on very company specific business matters and interests.
Another offering is our project or consulting work. This is where the proverbial “rubber meets the road,” and we use our models and analytics to drill down on very specific, custom requests from our clients. Engagements for project work can include, among others: asset/portfolio valuations; white papers; LMP modeling; production cost benefits analysis for transmission lines; new generation siting parameters; RFP replies and support for specific studies; multi-client studies; “Power Markets 101” insights for those new to the space, and other types of work of a particular nature for our clients.
ESAI can and does perform as expert witnesses in both legal and arbitration cases. We offer expertise across the wide and diverse range of wholesale power market issues and have successfully testified in front of judges and arbiters in all manner of engagements. Our understanding of the historical and current capacity markets and accompanying issues is second to none.