Congestion Watch Blog

Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

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Congestion Watch Blog

EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

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Coal-fired power plants are subject to a myriad of federal environmental regulations that have led to significant retirement waves when plant owners face capital expenditures for compliance that cannot be supported by market revenues. Many coal plant owners are now facing significant potential compliance costs due to rules regulating disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs). CCRs, also known as coal ash, are produced from the process of burning coal and operating flue gas desulfurization equipment at coal-fired facilities.

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Energy Watch Blog

Regulations Affecting Coal Combustion Residuals (CCRs) Under EPA Rules | Energy Watch Blog

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ESAI Power’s latest issue of EnergyWatch™ discusses regulations affecting coal combustion residuals (CCR) under EPA rules for wastewater discharge and CCR disposal and handling. Several coal-fired plants in PJM have announced retirement plans or are at-risk of retirement due to compliance requirements with these rules. Clients of our Energy Watch service received an accompanying spreadsheet with data about the affected plants. Also included are ESAI’s Power and Natural Gas forward pricing forecasts in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE.

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Capacity Watch Blog

ISO-NE FCA16 Auction Parameters and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

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In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-New England Forward Capacity Auction, FCA16. Clearing Prices are expected to decline from the FCA15 Auction due to a decrease in Net Installed Capacity Requirements (Net ICR) and Net Cost of New Entry (Net CONE).

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Natural Gas Watch Blog

Record LNG Exports Drive Domestic Demand | Natural Gas Watch Blog

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In just 15 years, the U.S. has gone from a net importer of LNG to becoming the world’s largest Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) exporter in 2022. The U.S. will surpass Qatar and Australia with an estimated 14 Bcf/day in exports by the end of 2022, up from 10 Bcf/d of export capability with the completion of the first wave of export facilities in mid-2021. LNG exports continue to be the most significant driver of U.S. natural gas demand.

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Congestion Watch Blog

A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

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High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.

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Congestion Watch Blog

RGGI Auction 54 Update | Emissions Watch Blog

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The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 54) was held on December 1, 2021. The clearing price was $13.00/ton, nearly 40 percent higher than the clearing price of $9.30/ton on September 8, 2021 (see Figure 1). For the first time since September 2015, the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) was triggered which is a mechanism of the RGGI program that was implemented to provide additional allowances when auction prices exceed an established price ceiling.

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Capacity Watch Blog

PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

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In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC’s revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC’s failure to reach a majority decision on PJM’s proposed MOPR revisions.

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Congestion Watch Blog

Winter Brings New Congestion Risks to Power Prices | Congestion Watch Blog

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The start of winter signals the end of generator maintenance season and a shift away from supply-stack driven congestion towards load and transmission driven congestion. Certain load pocket zones across the Northeast are susceptible to import constraints leading to elevated congestion risk and higher power prices. ESAI expects high natural gas prices to play a key role in December congestion patterns.

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Energy Watch Blog

Northeast’s Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

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The upcoming winter’s natural gas and power prices outlook for PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England continue to trend up despite the warmer-than-normal weather forecast. The forwards appear overvalued and ESAI Power holds its bearish stance on natural gas and power prices. The markets bullish outlook is based on a recent uptick in delivered gas and global LNG prices, but ESAI Power’s outlook has key insights driving a stable gas and power forecast.

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