ISO-NE Energy Watch Update | October 2023 | Energy Watch Blog

October 11, 2023 | Blog Post | energy-watch

ESAI Power’s latest Energy WatchTM market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.

The Energy WatchTM report was published to clients in early October. Our updated report includes both our Near-Term Outlook and Long-Term Outlook.

Near-Term update forecasts the New England forward curve out to November 2024.

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This includes the following:

  • Natural Gas prices for Henry Hub, Algonquin, and Iroquois.
  • Mass Hub Power price forecast for On-Peak, Off-Peak and 7X24.
  • Mass Hub Spark Spread Forecast for On-Peak, Off-Peak and 7X24.

ESAI’s 10-year energy market forecast includes our assumptions book, affecting our long-term forecast, including:

  • Long-term natural gas price outlook for Algonquin, Iroquois 72, and Henry Hub.
  • ESAI’s New Generation assumptions in our base case.
  • Renewable Addition Assumptions by nameplate capacity.
  • Retirement Assumptions.
  • Mass Hub Forecast, including Power Prices, Heat Rate, and Spark Spreads forecasts.

Note that ESAI also closely tracks developments in the renewable energy sector and maintains a quarterly Tier 1 REC forecast as part of our Renewables Watch report.

For more information and to get a sample of our specific price forecast data, check out ESAI Power’s Free Trial Service.

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ESAI Power evaluates Renewable Energy issues, markets and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. For each region, ESAI Power details the regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and projects the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030.

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Energy Watch

Energy WatchTM is a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each quarterly report. Forecast data is provided in spreadsheet format, which includes monthly on-peak, off-peak, and 7×24 zonal power prices, along with delivered natural gas prices for most Northeast regional pricing points.