Our WholeView Service provides both long-term and near-term outlooks for power market investors, generation owners and energy traders to make more informed decisions on the wholesale power markets of PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE.
- Every quarter, subscribers gain access to long-term Capacity, Carbon, Power, Natural Gas & RECs 10-year forecasts and rigorous analysis.
- On a monthly basis, we provide a 9-month zonal price and natural gas forecast, plus an analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. Our Congestion Monthly report is issued prior to the 1st regional FTR Auction.
- Each week, our Bal-Week & Next-Week reports provide near-term energy price forecasts. Natural Gas FundWatchTM provides a weekly near-term bullish or bearish forecast of market price direction.
In 2022, ESAI launched MISO Capacity coverage, which is available as add-on services to the WholeView Service.
Pricing
Available upon request.
Long-Term Reports
Capacity WatchTM is our quarterly analysis of capacity markets and capacity policy issues in ISO-NE, NYISO and PJM regions. This report includes ESAI’s outlook for regional 10-year capacity prices as well as in-depth analysis of current market issues that affect price outcomes. The impacts on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. MISO coverage available upon request.
Energy WatchTM is a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing over a 10-years for both power & natural gas. Includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM, and forecasts of fuel inputs. The dynamics of market & policy changes are analyzed and impacts on energy prices are assessed. These impacts are placed in the context of high-level benchmark economics of theoretical plants in specific locations. Report provides annual 7×24 data resolution.
Emissions WatchTM is a quarterly report contains our outlooks and views on the emissions markets ISO-NE, NYISO and PJM. ESAI provides regular updates and analysis on developments in the SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions markets as well as price forecasts for state and regional markets. In addition, regular updates are provided on the RGGI program as well as other state-specific emissions programs.
Renewables WatchTM provides quarterly update on significant policies (state and federal) facing the PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE renewable energy markets. In addition, inputs to ESAI’s Class I REC supply and demand models are updated quarterly to provide timely updates to Class I REC forecasts. ESAI also covers federal issues that impact renewable policy and development in the Northeast.
Transmission WatchTM is quarterly in-depth look at transmission investment and development. Regional reliability issues, economic congestion relief and policy drivers in the context of RTO planning processes. Regulatory and policy initiatives as well as updates on significant projects. We provide detailed quarterly reports that deliver insights into Transmission concerns, financing of projects, key policy changes, and merchant vs. utility build-outs. Transmission-specific data includes major transmission projects under consideration in North America.
Our Generation Asset Monitor (previously the Energy Asset Database) evaluates the outlook for the construction of generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM. Each project is assigned a “probability of completion factor in % terms” that is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions and retirements in each pool. The database is published quarterly and available in a basic format that provides a summary overview or fully detailed format to include project-by-project level details such as project status, queue numbers, project name, developer permit status, financing status, PPA status, etc.
Medium-Term and Short-Term Reports
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems & analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast, our monthly congestion report provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO.
Bal-Week & Next-Week reports are published every Monday and Thursday. They provide weekly forecasts in the key Northeast power markets: PJM Western Hub, New York Zones A and J, & the ISO-NE Internal Hub. The reports provide analyst commentary on expectations for fundamental factors that present risk to short-term power prices, including demand, supply, and congestion.
Natural Gas Fund WatchTM is a one-week outlook and analysis of key near-term factors in the natural gas market. This includes a fundamental overview, a technical trend analysis, and a comprehensive look at the commodity fund (Wall Street traders) positions on the NYMEX exchange. Each of these factors is weighted to provide the client with a near-term bullish/bearish forecast of market price direction.
Research Methodology
Energy Asset investment and power trading decisions should always be based upon fundamentally sound inputs and detailed project outlooks. While the demand side of the equation for energy asset valuations and energy pricing is relatively straightforward, getting the supply side data correct relies upon a detailed and accurate understanding of the construction of generation projects, the likelihood of project completion, and energy asset retirements and those at-risk of retirement. Supply forecasts also require a broad understanding of how transmission, congestion, emissions, and renewable energy mandates impact capacity and energy price outcomes.
Independent, Unbiased Analysis
For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided investors & generation owners with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy, emissions, renewables, transmission & RECs. Our forecasts are published to our client base of generators, investors, regulators, and utilities – and must always remain unbiased. We’re committed to covering these markets consistently in our price forecasts. ESAI is well known for publishing “the un-varnished truth” in our forward curve forecasts.
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