Unbiased Power, Capacity & Renewables Price Forecasts
ESAI Power provides investment, valuation, and risk assessment support for financial firms investing in the US power markets. Our market reports and analyst insights into complex market dynamics help investors make difficult investment decisions in the ever-changing and evolving power markets in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, MISO & CAISO.
Objective Analysis for Investors
For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided investors with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, MISO & CAISO, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy & RECs. ESAI’s forecasts are published to a large client base of generators, investors, regulators, and utilities – and must always remain unbiased. We’re committed to covering these markets consistently in our price forecasts. ESAI is well known for publishing “the un-varnished truth” in our forward curve forecasts.
Investors leverage ESAI’s wholesale power market insights to:
- Make critical investment decisions.
- Conduct effective energy asset analysis.
- Validate Asset Valuation Models and Projections.
- Stay up to date with unbiased near-term and long-term price forecasting.
- Understand and manage market and regulatory risks.
- Test analytical models and compare to industry-standard Capacity and Energy price forecast benchmarks.
Effective Energy Asset Analysis
Today’s trading strategies & next month’s long-term energy capital investment require the most accurate information to make sound decisions. ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known & expected changes in market conditions. Scenario analysis allows for further insights into price responses relative to potential shifts in market conditions.
Weekly, monthly, and quarterly market reports keep investment teams informed of market developments such as generator additions and retirements, growth in renewable resources, changes in load growth projections, and shifts in market rules & regulations. With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior analysts, investors have a full suite of tools to support energy asset/portfolio valuations.
Reliable Near-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting
ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known and expected changes in market conditions. ESAI often provides scenario analysis to allow further insights into price responses relative to potential shifts in market conditions.
ESAI Power’s weekly, monthly, and quarterly market reports keep teams informed of market developments such as generator additions and retirements, growth in renewable resources, changes in load growth projections, and shifts in market rules and regulations. With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior analysts, generation owners have a full suite of tools to enhance internal forecasting and financial budgeting processes.
Investors & Developers leverage ESAI’s comprehensive overview of markets, price forecasts, market data, reports and analyst access to help you forecast more accurately and optimize generation asset revenues.
Energy & Renewables Markets
ESAI offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York and New England energy markets. The research includes zonal LMP forecasting developed using dispatch modeling based on current and projected transmission topology and detailed gas pricing projections at specific regional gas delivery points. In Energy WatchTM and Renewables Watch, ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price and RECs forecasts for most zones in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE. Shorter-term, nine-month energy price forecasts are provided for key zones and hubs in ESAI’s Energy Monthly reports, while weekly outlooks are in ESAI’s Bal-Week and Next-Week market reports.
ESAI delivers a monthly Congestion WatchTM report that presents a one-month outlook for the congestion component of LMP prices in the three Northeast power pools’ most active zones. This report provides insights into LMP basis pricing risks faced by generators in the coming month due to the expected generator and transmission outages. The forecasts and insights provided in Congestion WatchTM are informative for managing congestion pricing risks in regional FTR markets.
Capacity markets are a source of significant revenues for generation assets. ESAI provides quarterly analysis and insights to support capacity market forecasts for every capacity area in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO. Protect your investments and capitalize on changing supply and demand conditions by tracking key market indicators and potential policy changes.
ESAI closely monitors the PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE & MISO capacity markets, including updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation & retirements, shifts in regional transmission impacting capacity areas, and evolving market rules. Additional factors such as market mitigation are addressed and outlined in ESAI’s quarterly Capacity WatchTM reports. Our coverage also includes Resource Adequacy in CAISO.
ESAI’s senior analysts provide insights into the analysis provided in Capacity WatchTM reports. Our Energy Asset Database (PEP) is a detailed database of expected generator retirements and projections for new build projects in each power pool, delivered in excel.
Unbiased Partner for Investments
ESAI Power’s market data and insights are used by investors to support their most critical investment decisions. ESAI is well known on the buy-side because our numbers cannot be bought, since we publish to a large subscriber base of market participants every week, month & quarter – we always deliver unbiased, objective capacity & energy forecasts to subscribers.
Market forecasts are backed by transparent assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market reports or in spreadsheet form for ease of use in revenue and margin projections. Market conditions constantly change & that means risk and upside are always on the horizon for investors.
ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, and market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes. Client-specific scenario analysis is produced on request.
Validate Asset Valuation Projections
Power sector investors leverage ESAI Power’s analytics to support asset valuations, buy-side and sell-side support, debt financing, and refinancing of energy assets. Mitigate risks and optimize revenue potential when evaluating new investments. With insights and price forecasts that range from weekly to 10 years.
With a clear perspective on projected market developments, new equity investments can be evaluated based upon market forecasts to support revenue & margin projections, in light of an understanding of the market and regulatory risks.
ESAI’s team will keep you informed of the policy developments at the state and federal level that impact asset valuations and will update you on early developments in the various ISO/RTO committees.
ESAI Power’s team of experts has vast experience in advising investors & developers on custom projects, including:
- Asset/portfolio valuations
- Buy-Side Acquisition Support
- Sell-Side Advisory Services
- Revenue Projections (Gross Margin Analysis)
- Nodal LMP Basis Analysis (Curtailment Assessments or Congestion Outlooks)
- Renewable energy market supply & demand outlooks for Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
- Plant Specific locational forecasts for individual plants or portfolio of plants
We have provided expert witness testimony, including in FERC proceedings, state utility commission hearings, and civil litigation. Our experts and analysts are ready to come alongside your team to provide support for M&A activities, customized market outlooks, regulatory proceedings, or other specialized market-related studies.
Visit our Consulting page to learn more.
Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE & MISO, with Resource Adequacy coverage in CAISO.
Energy WatchTM is available as a monthly or quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs.
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to first regional FTR auction closing date.
The Bal-Week and Next-Week reports provide short-term forecasts for key hubs in Northeast power markets; The PJM Western Hub, New York Zones A and J, and the ISO-NE Internal Hub. These weekly reports include analyst commentary on expectations for fundamental factors that present risk to short-term power prices, including Demand, Supply, and Congestion.