News

RGGI Auction 61 – Clearing Prices Up Nearly 9% | Emissions Watch Blog

September 8, 2023

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 61) was held on September 6th. The clearing price was $13.85/ton, 8.8% higher than the clearing price of $12.73/ton on June 7, 2023. Auction 61 represents the largest increase in clearing price in percentage terms since Auction 54 in December 2021.

Will Virginia leave RGGI? | Emissions News

August 31, 2023

At the end of July, regulations were published to withdraw Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The regulation, which was to take effect on August 30, 2023, requires that Virginia withdraw from the RGGI program at the end of this year. As expected, a legal challenge was filed immediately by the SELC.

PJM Interconnection Process Update | Generation Asset Monitor Blog

July 24, 2023

Earlier this month, PJM issued an update on its new process for studying New Service Requests from generators seeking Interconnection Service Agreements (ISAs) or Wholesale Market Participant Agreements (WMPAs). This new process was approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 29, 2022, and was implemented to address the significant backlog of generation projects with queue positions awaiting ISAs or WMPAs.

NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

July 3, 2023

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch update, ESAI delivers our NYISO Capacity Market Forecast out to 2032/33 Capability Year.

RGGI Auction 60 – Clearing Price of $12.73/ton | Emissions Watch Blog

June 9, 2023

RGGI quarterly Auction 60 was held on June 7, 2023. The clearing price was $12.73/ton, 1.8 percent higher than the clearing price of $12.50/ton on March 8, 2023 (see Figure 1). Auction 60 represents the first auction with a clearing price higher than the previous auction since Auction 56 in June 2022, reversing the recent trend of declining clearing prices.

MISO PRA Scheduled to start April 18th | Capacity Watch Blog

March 28, 2023

ESAI brings 20 years of experience analyzing and forecasting the Capacity Markets in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, into our new Capacity coverage of MISO. ESAI also maintains a MISO Energy Asset Database (Delivered to subscribers in excel) that tracks the MISO Interconnection queue to forecast Renewables Additions that produces a Probability Weighted Renewable Additions forecast, any Fossil Additions, and also any plant Retirements or forecasting plants at risk of retirement.

Platts Global Power Markets™ Conference April 17-19

March 28, 2023

The Platts Global Power Markets™ Conference connects the power industry at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, from April 17-19. Schedule a meeting with our ESAI Team at the conference to learn how we can help you make better investment decisions. Our Tom Bausemer and Brian Doyle will be attending the event and if you are interested in meeting up with them to discuss our wholesale power market research reports, please fill out the form to the right.

RGGI Auction 59 – Clearing Price of $12.50/ton | Emissions Watch Blog

March 10, 2023

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 59) was held on March 8, 2023. The clearing price was $12.50/ton, 3.8% lower than the clearing price of $12.99/ton on December 7, 2022 (see Figure 1). Auction 59 represents the third consecutive auction with a clearing price at least three percent lower than the previous auction. The trend of lower clearing prices in recent auctions is notable given that clearing prices had increased in 12 consecutive auctions from September 2019 through June 2022.

ISO-NE FCA17 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

February 24, 2023

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-NE FCA17, Forward Capacity Auction. ESAI's coverage includes auction parameters, qualified capacity, and expected auction dynamics. These are all detailed in our Capacity Watch report.

PM2.5 and NAAQS Update | Emissions Watch Blog

February 15, 2023

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a proposed rule to strengthen the primary (health-based) annual National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particle pollution, PM2.5. Specifically, the EPA is proposing to revise the primary annual standard from 12.0 µg/m3 to a value within the range of 9.0 and 10.0 µg/m3.

FERC Approved PJM Queue Reform Proposal | Renewables Watch Blog

February 2, 2023

FERC Approved PJM’s Queue Reform Proposal. These reforms are intended to address the significant backlog of generation projects with queue positions awaiting ISAs or WMPAs. With this approval, PJM will process New Service Requests under a “first-ready, first-served” approach going forward rather than its current “first-come, first-served” approach.

EPA Proposes Tightening Fine Particulate Matter Standard, Potentially Affecting Coal Power Plants | Emissions News

January 6, 2023

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that in a move that could add to regulatory requirements for coal-fired power plants, the Environmental Protection Agency on Friday proposed tightening the primary annual air quality standard for fine particulate matter, called PM 2.5, to a range of 9 micrograms per cubic meter to 10 µg/m3 from 12 µg/m3. Coal plants owners in nonattaintment areas for a revised standard will have to meet requirements outlined in any approved state plans for meeting the federal PM 2.5 limit, according to Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power manager of renewables and emissions.

RGGI Auction 58 Clears at $12.99 | Emissions Watch Blog

December 9, 2022

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 58) was held on December 7, 2022. The clearing price was $12.99/ton, three percent lower than the clearing price of $13.45/ton on September 7, 2022 (see Figure 1). Auction 58 represents the second consecutive auction with a clearing price lower than the previous auction, with both Auctions 57 and 58 clearing 3 percent below previous auction clearing prices.

MISO Capacity Price Forecast PRA 2023/24 | Capacity Watch Blog

November 2, 2022

Persistent Congestion on NYISO’s Central East Interface: The End is in Sight | Congestion Watch Blog

October 18, 2022

The Central East Interface is one of New York’s most congested corridors, enabling Upstate generation to serve the robust load levels Downstate. Congestion on the interface and the Zone F/Zone E basis spread has increased significantly in the past 1.5 years as a result of construction on the Central East Energy Connect, one of the two projects under the AC Transmission Upgrades PPTN. In addition to construction-associated outages, higher delivered gas prices in eastern New York have contributed to increased congestion.

PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

October 18, 2022

For Energy Investors and Generation Owners investing and trading in PJM, it’s vital to have an in-depth market model with deep analysis of the market fundamentals, the latest regulatory updates, and insight into the rule changes and planning parameters that impact PJM BRA clearing prices moving forward. Surface level analysis is not enough when it comes to making investment decisions in the PJM Capacity Market. The PJM BRA for 2024/25 Delivery year is set to begin December 7th, 2022

Renewable Energy PPA Trends & Outlook | Renewables Watch Blog

October 5, 2022

Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market's resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.

RGGI Auction 57 Clears At $13.45, A 3% Drop | Emissions Watch Blog

September 9, 2022

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 57) was held on September 7, 2022. The clearing price was $13.45/ton, three percent lower than the clearing price of $13.90/ton on June 1, 2022 (see Figure 1). Although the clearing price was only $0.45/ton lower than the most recent auction, Auction 57 marks the first time since Auction 45 in September 2019 that the clearing price has declined from the previous auction.

Renewable Energy Development Challenges | Renewables Watch Blog

July 19, 2022

Supreme Court’s EPA Decision to Impact Coal Plant Retirements | Emissions News

July 12, 2022

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that power plant owners have started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection's footprint this month, according to the grid operator's generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year. Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, our Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power's Manager of Renewables and Emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by "end of life" plant issues.

Proposed EPA Rule Leads to Quadrupling Group 3 Ozone Season CSAPR NOx Prices | Emissions Watch Blog

June 7, 2022

The EPA issued a proposed rule in February 2022 that, if finalized, will implement significant programmatic changes, and establish lower emissions limits to the existing Group 3 Ozone Season Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) beginning in the 2023 ozone season. Following the issuance of this proposed rule, Group 3 CSAPR NOx allowance prices have quadrupled from approximately $6,500/ton in February to $28,500/ton (June 6).

RGGI Auction 56 Update: RGGI Auction Clears At $13.90 | Emissions Watch Blog

June 3, 2022

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 56) was held on June 1, 2022. The clearing price was $13.90/ton, three percent higher than the clearing price of $13.50/ton on March 9, 2022 (see Figure 1). Although the clearing price was only slightly higher than the most recent auction, the $13.90/ton price marks the highest clearing price since the start of the program. Notably, the clearing price fell just short of the 2022 Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) trigger price.

NYISO Central East Congestion to Moderate this summer | Congestion Watch Blog

May 20, 2022

Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

ESAI Power Sponsors ACORE Renewable Energy Finance Forum | Renewables News

May 17, 2022

ESAI Power is excited to spend time with clients, partners and friends at the ACORE Finance Forum in New York on June 7th & 8th and talk through Renewable Energy Project Finance challenges and opportunities. If you’re planning to attend, please email Brian Doyle on [email protected] to schedule a meeting with our Capacity or Renewable Energy teams.

PJM BRA 2023/24 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

May 13, 2022

ESAI Power’s recent Capacity Watch includes our forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24. Our PJM analysis this quarter includes ESAI’s forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24 and reflects upon MOPR, MSOC, ELCC and VRR Curves.

Are Power Forwards Overvalued for Summer 2022? | Energy Watch Blog

May 11, 2022

Power forward contracts for this summer are trading north of $100/MWh in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Implied forward spark spreads – an indicator of the profitability of gas-fired power plants – have exploded, greatly exceeding anything that has historically been realized in the power markets.

ISO-NE Proposes Ending MOPR in 2025, with a Transition Aimed at Protecting Grid Reliability | Energy News

April 4, 2022

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that ISO New England has proposed ending its "minimum offer price rule" in 2025, with a transition that exempts up to 700 MW of qualified state-supported capacity — or roughly 2,000 MW of nameplate capacity — from the MOPR over the next two capacity auctions. Learn what Scott Niemann, ESAI Power director and principal, says about ending the rule.

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