News

PJM’s Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI) | Capacity Watch

May 12, 2025

We will soon publish our Capacity Watch for PJM report, which provides a comprehensive analysis of market drivers and recent developments, including Market Rules Changes for Capacity Accreditation (ELCC & CIFP), Increased Demand Forecast for Data Centers & AI and Retirement Drivers: At-risk assets driven by coal ash rules.

PJM Load Forecast 2025 Update | Energy Watch Blog

February 12, 2025

ESAI Power's latest Energy Watch update includes our view on the impact of PJM's 2025 Load forecast on Energy Prices and Capacity Prices moving forward in PJM, including detailed analysis of CAGRs for peak load and net energy in AEP, Dominion, PPL, COMED and other PJM RTO zones.

PJM Generation Asset Monitor Update | Capacity News

February 3, 2025

This update provides a high-level overview of our recently published PJM Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) report and database. The PJM GAM tracks the Interconnection queues for additions, forecasts plant retirements and plants deemed at risk of retirement, and provides an outlook for the timeline of renewable generation projects in PJM, MISO, NYISO and ISO-NE.

MISO Capacity Market Update | Capacity Watch Blog

January 16, 2025

MISO released its seasonal preliminary PRA report yesterday, January 15, 2025. This update includes preliminary PRA Data posting for Summer 2025, Fall 2025, Winter 2025/26 and Spring 2026. The data includes PRMR, LCR, and Total Installed Capacity (ICAP). ESAI Power’s latest MISO Capacity report and forecast include updates on the Summer Peak forecast for 2025, how data center demand is impacting prices, details on scheduled and at-risk retirements, implementation of RBDC, and what market drivers will impact both the 2025/26 PRA and price outcomes over the next 10 years.

PJM Energy Market Outlook | Energy Watch Blog

January 14, 2025

ESAI Power’s latest Energy Watch PJM market update includes our current 10-year forecast for power and natural gas prices across PJM. This update is based on ESAI’s fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. ESAI Power’s latest PJM Energy Watch report includes both our detailed Near-Term and Long-Term outlooks.

ESAI at Projects & Money, January 27-29, 2025

January 6, 2025

ESAI's COO, Tom Bausemer, will attend the Projects and Money conference at The Roosevelt Hotel in New Orleans. Projects & Money is the meeting where the country’s leading project developers learn what they need to know to source investment and debt capital in 2025. Projects & Money is a unique opportunity to hear the nation’s leading debt and equity investors provide unique perspectives on the latest trends, approaches, issues and opportunities in the energy infrastructure market.

Trump’s Election Win impacts Ozone Season CSAPR Programs | Emissions Watch Blog

December 9, 2024

Emissions Watch is our quarterly report that contains ESAI Power’s outlooks and views on the emissions markets. ESAI provides regular updates and analysis on developments in the RGGI, SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions markets and price forecasts for state and regional markets.

PJM’s Updated Capacity Auction Schedule | Capacity Watch Blog

November 20, 2024

PJM recently updated its Capacity Auction schedule for the 2026/27 Base Residual Auction. The auction was set to begin in early December 2024 but has now been delayed and is scheduled to take place in early July 2024. PJM is now scheduled to open the offer window for the 2026/27 BRA on July 9th, 2025 for market participants. The Capacity auction window will close on July 16th, and PJM plans to post the auction results on July 22nd.

MISO Interconnection Queue Update I Generation Asset Monitor Blog

November 19, 2024

This update provides a high-level overview of our recently published MISO Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) report and database for November, 2024. The MISO GAM tracks the Interconnection queue in MISO for additions, forecasts plant retirements and plants deemed at risk of retirement, and provides an outlook for the timeline of renewable generation projects in MISO.

NYISO Progress Towards Meeting 70% by 2030 | Renewable Watch Blog

October 4, 2024

This quarter's NYISO Renewables Watch update includes ESAI's latest updated Tier 1 REC supply and demand outlook and assesses New York's progress towards meeting it's 70% by 2030 Renewable Energy requirement. We compare New York's RES requirements with ESAI's Projections (MWh) to assess the projected deficit.

NYISO Capacity Price Forecast Winter 2024-25 | Capacity Watch Blog

September 27, 2024

The NYISO Winter Strip Auction window opened today, starting a series of critical events in the NYISO Winter Capability Period for 2024/25. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) manages the state of New York’s energy needs, ensuring a reliable power supply during the colder months. This blog post will delve into some details of the NYISO Installed Capacity Market for the Winter 2024/25 season, shedding light on auction schedules, clearing price volatility, and notable changes compared to the previous winter.

ESAI Power NYISO Generation Asset Monitor Update | NYISO Generation Asset Monitor Blog

September 24, 2024

This update provides a high-level overview of our recently published NYISO Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) report and database. The NYISO GAM tracks the Interconnection queues for additions, forecasts plant retirements and plants deemed at risk of retirement, and provides an outlook for the timeline of renewable generation projects in PJM, MISO, NYISO and ISO-NE.

PJM Generation Asset Monitor Update | Capacity News

September 3, 2024

PJM Capacity Price Forecast Update BRA 2026/27 | Utility Dive | Capacity News

August 29, 2024

The 2026/27 PJM RPM Base Residual Auction is scheduled for early December. Ethan Howland reports in today's Utility Dive that according to Morgan Stanley and ESAI Power's Scott Niemann, PJM capacity auction prices could plausibly clear at the price cap. Whilst clearing at the cap is a "very plausible" outcome, there are scenarios where pricing clears at "substantially" lower prices.

PJM Capacity Forecast BRA 2025/26 | Capacity Watch

June 30, 2024

Emissions Watch | EPA Rules Update

June 6, 2024

ESAI Power’s latest Emissions Watch update, issued on May 16, 2024, provided our customers with our analysis of the four final rules issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2024, including the Greenhouse Gas Rule (GHG), the Updated Effluent Limitation Guidelines (ELGs), the Updated Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) and the Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR) Rule.

NYISO Installed Capacity Market Summer Strip 2024 Update | Capacity Watch Blog

March 26, 2024

The NYISO Summer Capability Period will begin on May 1st, with the following auction schedule: Wednesday, March 27th - The NYISO ICAP Summer 2024 Strip Auction Bid Period Opens. Thursday, March 28th - The Summer Strip Auction Bid Period closes. Monday, April 1st - Results of the auction are posted. Tuesday, April 9th - First monthly auction for Summer 2024. April 24th - 25th - May Spot Market Auction. April 29th - May Spot Market Auction results are posted. ESAI's Capacity Watch update to clients discusses the key auction parameters, changes in supply since Summer 2023/24, and ESAI's forecast for the Summer period. ESAI's NYISO Capacity Watch update includes predicted Summer 2024 Clearing prices for NYCA, Zone J, Zone K, and the G-J Locality.

MISO PRA Scheduled to Start March 26th | Capacity Watch Blog

March 20, 2024

ESAI brings 20 years of experience analyzing and forecasting the Capacity Markets in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, into our new Capacity coverage of MISO. ESAI also maintains a MISO Energy Asset Database (Delivered to subscribers in excel) that tracks the MISO Interconnection queue to forecast Renewables Additions that produces a Probability Weighted Renewable Additions forecast, any Fossil Additions, and also any plant Retirements or forecasting plants at risk of retirement.

PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2024 | Energy Watch Blog

February 20, 2024

ESAI Power's latest Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year power and natural gas price forecast across PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. The update also includes our natural gas price forecast, based on our fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. This blog post will delve into the critical details behind our near-term and long-term 10-year energy market forecast for ISO-New England.

PJM Set To Hold Capacity Auction In June After Receiving Mixed FERC Decisions | Capacity News

February 12, 2024

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that after receiving two key Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decisions, the PJM Interconnection plans to hold its next capacity auction in June. Our Scott Niemann, Managing Director & Principal, said the FERC-approved changes will likely put upward pressure on capacity prices in most parts of PJM. Driven by pending power plant retirements, prices in PJM’s Southwest MAAC zone could break higher than the overall regional transmission organization.

ISO-NE FCA18 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

January 23, 2024

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze ISO-NE FCA18, Forward Capacity Auction. ESAI's coverage includes auction parameters, qualified capacity, and expected auction dynamics. These are all detailed in our Capacity Watch report.

RGGI Auction 62 Clears at CCR Trigger of $14.88 | Emissions Watch Blog

December 8, 2023

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 62) was held on December 6, 2023. The clearing price was $14.88/ton, 7.4 percent higher than the clearing price of $13.85/ton on September 6, 2023 (see Figure 1). Auction 62 represents the third consecutive auction with increasing clearing prices, which follows three prior consecutive auctions with decreasing clearing prices.

ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

November 27, 2023

Generation owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the ISO-New England Capacity Market. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.” ESAI is now offering the opportunity to request our Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecasts for ISO New England's Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions.

PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023

November 21, 2023

Power Generator owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the PJM, MISO, ISO-NE and NYISO Capacity Markets. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March, 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.”

NYISO Capacity Prices Volatile Heading into Winter 2023-24 | Capacity Watch Blog

October 9, 2023

As the days grow shorter and temperatures drop, the New York State energy market gears up for another winter season. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) manages the state’s energy needs, ensuring a reliable power supply during the colder months. This blog post will delve into the critical details of the NYISO Installed Capacity Market for the Winter 2023/24 season, shedding light on auction schedules, clearing price volatility, and notable changes compared to the previous winter.

RGGI Auction 61 – Clearing Prices Up Nearly 9% | Emissions Watch Blog

September 8, 2023

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 61) was held on September 6th. The clearing price was $13.85/ton, 8.8% higher than the clearing price of $12.73/ton on June 7, 2023. Auction 61 represents the largest increase in clearing price in percentage terms since Auction 54 in December 2021.

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News

PJM’s Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI) | Capacity Watch

PJM Load Forecast 2025 Update | Energy Watch Blog

PJM Generation Asset Monitor Update | Capacity News

MISO Capacity Market Update | Capacity Watch Blog

PJM Energy Market Outlook | Energy Watch Blog

ESAI at Projects & Money, January 27-29, 2025

Trump’s Election Win impacts Ozone Season CSAPR Programs | Emissions Watch Blog

PJM’s Updated Capacity Auction Schedule | Capacity Watch Blog

MISO Interconnection Queue Update I Generation Asset Monitor Blog

NYISO Progress Towards Meeting 70% by 2030 | Renewable Watch Blog

NYISO Capacity Price Forecast Winter 2024-25 | Capacity Watch Blog

ESAI Power NYISO Generation Asset Monitor Update | NYISO Generation Asset Monitor Blog

PJM Generation Asset Monitor Update | Capacity News

PJM Capacity Price Forecast Update BRA 2026/27 | Utility Dive | Capacity News

PJM Capacity Forecast BRA 2025/26 | Capacity Watch

Emissions Watch | EPA Rules Update

NYISO Installed Capacity Market Summer Strip 2024 Update | Capacity Watch Blog

MISO PRA Scheduled to Start March 26th | Capacity Watch Blog

PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2024 | Energy Watch Blog

PJM Set To Hold Capacity Auction In June After Receiving Mixed FERC Decisions | Capacity News

ISO-NE FCA18 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

Top ESAI Power Blog Posts for 2023

RGGI Auction 62 Clears at CCR Trigger of $14.88 | Emissions Watch Blog

ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023

NYISO Capacity Prices Volatile Heading into Winter 2023-24 | Capacity Watch Blog

RGGI Auction 61 – Clearing Prices Up Nearly 9% | Emissions Watch Blog

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