PJM Interconnection (PJM)

PJM Interconnection LLC (PJM) is a regional transmission organization (RTO) serving all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Started in 1927, this energy pool was renamed the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) in 1956. PJM is headquartered in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.

ESAI’s PJM Coverage includes Capacity, RECs, Power, Natural Gas, Carbon, Transmission and Congestion markets

ESAI provides fundamental-based outlooks for generation owners, investors, developers, and energy traders. Subscribers receive market updates on important market events including Capacity auctions, RGGI auctions, new Emissions and Renewables legislations, plus complete PJM long-term price forecasts for Power, NatGas, Capacity, RECs, and Emissions prices.

ESAI Power’s market insights enable subscribers to:

Make critical investment and trading decisions.
Conduct effective energy asset revenue and gross margin analysis.
Validate Asset valuation models and projections.
Stay up to date with unbiased near-term and long-term price forecasts.
Understand and manage market and regulatory risks.
Test analytical models.
Compare industry standard Capacity, Carbon, RECs, Energy & NatGas price forecast benchmarks.

In addition to PJM, ESAI Power monitors ISO-NE, NYISO and MISO.

Request our PJM Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

Request a report detailing ESAI Power’s Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecast for PJM’s Base Residual Auctions (BRA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions. This report compares ESAI’s pre-auction forecast with actual BRA results across defined locational deliverability areas (LDA) for the past seven PJM Base Residual Auctions.

ESAI Power continuously monitors and conducts analyses the capacity markets in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO. Capacity market projections incorporate detailed assessments of market rule changes, market drivers including load projections, demand curve parameters, new capacity and retirements, and transmission constraints that impact locational delivery and pricing.

PJM Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

Read Our PJM Blog Posts

PJM Set To Hold Capacity Auction In June After Receiving Mixed FERC Decisions | Capacity News

February 12, 2024

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that after receiving two key Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decisions, the PJM Interconnection plans to hold its next capacity auction in June. Our Scott Niemann, Managing Director & Principal, said the FERC-approved changes will likely put upward pressure on capacity prices in most parts of PJM. Driven by pending power plant retirements, prices in PJM’s Southwest MAAC zone could break higher than the overall regional transmission organization.

PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023

November 21, 2023

Power Generator owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the PJM, MISO, ISO-NE and NYISO Capacity Markets. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March, 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.”

Will Virginia leave RGGI? | Emissions News

August 31, 2023

At the end of July, regulations were published to withdraw Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The regulation, which was to take effect on August 30, 2023, requires that Virginia withdraw from the RGGI program at the end of this year. As expected, a legal challenge was filed immediately by the SELC.

PJM Interconnection Process Update | Generation Asset Monitor Blog

July 24, 2023

Earlier this month, PJM issued an update on its new process for studying New Service Requests from generators seeking Interconnection Service Agreements (ISAs) or Wholesale Market Participant Agreements (WMPAs). This new process was approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 29, 2022, and was implemented to address the significant backlog of generation projects with queue positions awaiting ISAs or WMPAs.

FERC Approved PJM Queue Reform Proposal | Renewables Watch Blog

February 2, 2023

FERC Approved PJM’s Queue Reform Proposal. These reforms are intended to address the significant backlog of generation projects with queue positions awaiting ISAs or WMPAs. With this approval, PJM will process New Service Requests under a “first-ready, first-served” approach going forward rather than its current “first-come, first-served” approach.

EPA Proposes Tightening Fine Particulate Matter Standard, Potentially Affecting Coal Power Plants | Emissions News

January 6, 2023

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that in a move that could add to regulatory requirements for coal-fired power plants, the Environmental Protection Agency on Friday proposed tightening the primary annual air quality standard for fine particulate matter, called PM 2.5, to a range of 9 micrograms per cubic meter to 10 µg/m3 from 12 µg/m3. Coal plants owners in nonattaintment areas for a revised standard will have to meet requirements outlined in any approved state plans for meeting the federal PM 2.5 limit, according to Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power manager of renewables and emissions.

PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

October 18, 2022

For Energy Investors and Generation Owners investing and trading in PJM, it’s vital to have an in-depth market model with deep analysis of the market fundamentals, the latest regulatory updates, and insight into the rule changes and planning parameters that impact PJM BRA clearing prices moving forward. Surface level analysis is not enough when it comes to making investment decisions in the PJM Capacity Market. The PJM BRA for 2024/25 Delivery year is set to begin December 7th, 2022

Renewable Energy PPA Trends & Outlook | Renewables Watch Blog

October 5, 2022

Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market's resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.

Renewable Energy Development Challenges | Renewables Watch Blog

July 19, 2022

Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market's resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.

Supreme Court’s EPA Decision to Impact Coal Plant Retirements | Emissions News

July 12, 2022

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that power plant owners have started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection's footprint this month, according to the grid operator's generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year. Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, our Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power's Manager of Renewables and Emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by "end of life" plant issues.

PJM BRA 2023/24 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

May 13, 2022

ESAI Power’s recent Capacity Watch includes our forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24. Our PJM analysis this quarter includes ESAI’s forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24 and reflects upon MOPR, MSOC, ELCC and VRR Curves.

Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

March 23, 2022

Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

Coal Plant Owners Seek to Shut 3.2 GW in PJM in Face of Economic, Regulatory and Market Pressures | Emissions News

March 22, 2022

Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that power plant owners have started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection's footprint this month, according to the grid operator's generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year. Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, our Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power's Manager of Renewables and Emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by "end of life" plant issues.

EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

March 1, 2022

Coal-fired power plants are subject to a myriad of federal environmental regulations that have led to significant retirement waves when plant owners face capital expenditures for compliance that cannot be supported by market revenues. Many coal plant owners are now facing significant potential compliance costs due to rules regulating disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs). CCRs, also known as coal ash, are produced from the process of burning coal and operating flue gas desulfurization equipment at coal-fired facilities.

PJM Interconnection (PJM)

ESAI’s PJM Coverage includes Capacity, RECs, Power, Natural Gas, Carbon, Transmission and Congestion markets

Request our PJM Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record

Read Our PJM Blog Posts

PJM Set To Hold Capacity Auction In June After Receiving Mixed FERC Decisions | Capacity News

Top ESAI Power Blog Posts for 2023

PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023

Will Virginia leave RGGI? | Emissions News

PJM Interconnection Process Update | Generation Asset Monitor Blog

FERC Approved PJM Queue Reform Proposal | Renewables Watch Blog

EPA Proposes Tightening Fine Particulate Matter Standard, Potentially Affecting Coal Power Plants | Emissions News

PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

Renewable Energy PPA Trends & Outlook | Renewables Watch Blog

Renewable Energy Development Challenges | Renewables Watch Blog

Supreme Court’s EPA Decision to Impact Coal Plant Retirements | Emissions News

PJM BRA 2023/24 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

Coal Plant Owners Seek to Shut 3.2 GW in PJM in Face of Economic, Regulatory and Market Pressures | Emissions News

EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog

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