PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

October 20, 2022 | Blog Postcapacity-watch, pjm

For Energy Investors and Generation Owners investing and trading in PJM, it’s vital to have an in-depth market model with deep analysis of the market fundamentals, the latest regulatory updates, and insight into the rule changes and planning parameters that impact PJM BRA clearing prices moving forward.

Surface level analysis is not enough when it comes to making investment decisions in the PJM Capacity Market. The PJM BRA for 2024/25 Delivery year is set to begin December 7th, 2022

ESAI Power’s recent Capacity Watch includes our forecast for the PJM BRA 2024/25, in addition this issue of Capacity Watch analyzes:

  • Updated BRA Parameters, including:
    • Net CONE values by LDA
    • RTO-wide reliability requirements
    • LDA-level reliability requirements
    • CETO and CETL values for all PJM LDAs
  • Expected Supply and Offers for the PJM base residual auction.
  • Updated VRR curves for 2024/25.

Here are some key questions that ESAI addressed in our recent Capacity Watch coverage of the PJM BRA 2024/25:

  • How will changes in supply for the 2024/25 BRA impact clearing prices?
  • To what extent will each PJM LDA and their Sub-LDAs be impacted by the reliability requirements and CETO and CETL values?
  • What is the impact of rule changes and changes in supply?
  • What are potential impacts of MSOC and MOPR rules?
  • What is the outlook for the 2024/25 BRA?
  • What is the long-term RPM outlook in PJM?

PJM has not released any sensitivity cases for the 2023/24 BRA to illustrate how shifts in supply may have impacted RTO clearing prices.  ESAI will publish an updated PJM BRA 2024/25 forecast to subscribers prior to the auction.

  • For more information about our Capacity Forecasts, see our Capacity Market Coverage.
  • To request access to ESAI’s Quarterly Power Service, please request a free trial.
  • ESAI recently launched Capacity coverage for MISO.
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ESAI Power provides investment, valuation, and risk assessment support for financial firms investing in the Northeast power markets. For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided investors with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy & RECs. Our market reports and analyst insights into complex market dynamics help investors make difficult investment decisions in the ever-changing and evolving Northeast power markets.

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Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, New York, and New England. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s Project Database is updated and presented with each issue.

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