MISO Capacity PRA 2024/25 Scheduled to start March 26th | Capacity Watch Blog

March 20th, 2024 | Blog Postcapacity-watch, miso

MISO’s Capacity Auction PRA for 2024/25 is set to begin on March 26th, 2024. The Planning Resource Auction offer window for all seasons opens at 8AM on March 26th.

The auction results for each season will be posted on April 26th, with additional auction details expected to be released by late May.

Each of the four seasons begin on the following dates throughout the 2024/25 Planning year:

  • Summer season begins June 1, 2024
  • Fall season begins September 1, 2024
  • Winter season begins December 1, 2024
  • Spring season begins March 1, 2025
Capacity Watch Blog
Midcontinent ISO (MISO)

The MISO 2023/24 PRA was the first auction to implement the MISO’s seasonal market design and accreditation rules. An increase in supply and decline in Planning Reserve Margin Requirement (PRMR) for that auction resulted in a drop in clearing prices from the 2022/23 Planning Resource Auction (PRA).  Unlike the 2022/23 PRA, no zones had capacity shortfalls. As expected, the vertical demand curve resulted in relatively low prices for most locations and seasons, despite relatively thin reserve margins.

ESAI’s MISO Capacity Service subscribers have access to our pre-auction 2024/25 PRA Outlook and seasonal forecasts for the upcoming PRA for Summer, Fall, Winter, and Spring 2024/25, with detailed forecasts for MISO, North-Central, South, Zone 1, Zone 2, Zone 3, Zone 4, Zone 5, Zone 6, Zone 7, Zone 8, and Zone 9.

ESAI brings 20 years of experience analyzing and forecasting the Capacity Markets in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, into our Capacity coverage of MISO.

ESAI  maintains a MISO Generation Asset Monitor (Delivered to subscribers monthly) that tracks the MISO Interconnection queue to forecast Renewables Additions that produces a Probability Weighted Renewable Additions forecast, any Fossil Additions, and also any plant Retirements or forecasting plants at risk of retirement.  This is input to produce our 10-year MISO forward Supply curve that is then balanced with Demand to help us produce our long term MISO Capacity PRA 2024/25 Forecast.

ESAI provides updates on supply & demand fundamentals, market rule developments, & policy changes that impact MISO capacity market outcomes.  This service includes:

  1. Pre-Auction forecast and briefing prior to each PRA.
  2. Post-Auction results and impact on MISO Capacity prices moving forward.
  3. Briefing (PowerPoint) summarizing recent developments related to the MISO RA market including 10-year supply and demand outlook. 
  4. MISO PRA forecast updates
  5. MISO Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) published monthly with New Capacity and Retirement Data
  6. Annual Market Briefing And Update
  7. Full Analyst Access to our team of MISO Capacity experts.

For more information go here for our MISO Capacity ServiceFor our full Capacity Forecasts, see our Capacity Market Coverage.  And to request access to ESAI’s Benchmark Energy Research Service, please request a free trial.

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ESAI Power provides investment, valuation, and risk assessment support for financial firms investing in the Northeast power markets. For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided investors with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy & RECs. Our market reports and analyst insights into complex market dynamics help investors make difficult investment decisions in the ever-changing and evolving Northeast power markets.

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Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, New York, and New England. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s Project Database is updated and presented with each issue.

MISO Capacity Market Service

MISO Capacity Market Service

Our MISO Capacity Market Service analysis reports offer an in-depth 10-year supply and demand forecast on the MISO Capacity market. Every quarter, ESAI provides updates on supply & demand fundamentals, market rule developments, & policy changes that impact MISO capacity market outcomes. This service includes: Briefing about the 2022/23 PRA results, Quarterly briefing (PowerPoint) summarizing recent developments related to the MISO RA market, Auction results, FERC filings and rule changes, Stakeholder discussions and more.