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Capacity Watch Blog

PJM BRA 2023/24 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

ESAI Power’s recent Capacity Watch includes our forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24. Our PJM analysis this quarter includes ESAI’s forecast for the PJM BRA 2023/24 and reflects upon MOPR, MSOC, ELCC and VRR Curves.

Capacity Watch Blog

ISO-NE FCA16 Auction Parameters and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-New England Forward Capacity Auction, FCA16. Clearing Prices are expected to decline from the FCA15 Auction due to a decrease in Net Installed Capacity Requirements (Net ICR) and Net Cost of New Entry (Net CONE).

Capacity Watch Blog

PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC’s revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC’s failure to reach a majority decision on PJM’s proposed MOPR revisions.

Capacity Watch Blog

Stepping Stones to FCA16 and Beyond | Capacity Watch Blog

In this blog, we highlight a portion of the analysis in the NYISO section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. Changes to the New York markets’ supply and demand levels and declining peak load forecasts have sent capacity prices in all directions. New York’s commitment to renewable development has increased considerably in the past year with the approval of CLCPA’s minimum statewide goal of 9 GW of offshore wind by 2035. The upward trajectory of renewables has also shaped LCR and IRM expectations.

Capacity Watch Blog

Renewable Expansion in NYISO | Capacity Watch Blog

In this blog, we highlight a portion of the analysis in the NYISO section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. Changes to the New York markets’ supply and demand levels and declining peak load forecasts have sent capacity prices in all directions. New York’s commitment to renewable development has increased considerably in the past year with the approval of CLCPA’s minimum statewide goal of 9 GW of offshore wind by 2035.

Capacity Watch Blog

How Low Can PJM Capacity Prices Go? | Capacity Watch Blog

Our Q2 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO Capacity prices. In this blog, we will highlight a portion of the analysis in the PJM section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. PJM’s recent release of the 2022/23 Base Residual Auction clearing prices surprised many market participants with prices well below expectations. Prices in each LDA cleared significantly lower than historical auctions, and in particular, the 2021/22 BRA.

Capacity Watch Graphic

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.

Capacity Watch Blog

PJM BRA 2022/23, ISO-NE FCA 16 Forecast and NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

Our Q1 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England and NYISO Capacity prices. For ISO New England, we review the results for the Fifteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA15) recently conducted by ISO New England. In PJM, parameters have been released for the 2022/23 BRA, scheduled for May 2021. With a lower forecasted peak load, auction clearing prices are expected to decline in all PJM locations. In New York, the 2021 Summer Capability Period will begin in May.

Capacity Watch Graphic

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q1 2021

Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.