Request ESAI’s ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction Track Record for FCA 11 through FCA 17
November 27, 2023 | Blog Post | capacity-watch, capacity, capacity-auctions, capacity-forecasts, ISO-NE
Generation owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the ISO-New England Capacity Market. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March 2023, “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.”
ESAI Power’s Capacity market experts were consultants during the formation of the ISO New England Forward Capacity Market 20 plus years ago. ESAI’s involvement in these early consulting projects on Capacity market rules and auction structure in ISO-NE has helped inform our ongoing analysis of the Capacity markets. This consulting knowledge plus ongoing primary research on ISO-NE positions ESAI analysts as the foremost Capacity Market experts.
We publish Capacity Watch and the Generation Asset Monitor to assess Capacity market rule changes, supply, demand, the interconnection queues and forecast upcoming fossil retirements. Whilst many see “hopeless complexity”, ESAI Power’s Capacity experts can see through the noise and into trends to provide reliable input into Generation Owner and Investor Capacity auction bidding strategies and managing risk long-term.
ESAI Power’s vision is to: ”advance transparency, competitiveness, efficiency, and transformation in the power markets” and we support clients by providing insights and, as much as possible, transparency for our subscribers.
Capacity Watch customers receive pre-auction pricing forecasts for the capacity markets in ISO-NE, PJM, NYISO and MISO. We maintain long-term (10-year) capacity market projections incorporating detailed assessments of market drivers such as load projections, demand curve parameters, new renewable capacity coming online, retirements (including forecasted plants at-risk of retirement), and transmission constraints that impact locational delivery and pricing.
ESAI is now offering the opportunity to request our Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecasts for ISO New England’s Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions. This white paper compares ESAI’s pre-auction FCA forecasts with actual FCA results across defined locational deliverability areas (LDA) for the past 7 ISO-NE FCAs.
