Capacity Watch Blog

MISO Capacity Price Forecast PRA 2023/24 | Capacity Watch Blog

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ESAI brings 20 years of experience analyzing and forecasting the Capacity Markets in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, into our new Capacity coverage of MISO. ESAI also maintains a MISO Energy Asset Database (Delivered to subscribers in excel) that tracks the MISO Interconnection queue to forecast Renewables Additions that produces a Probability Weighted Renewable Additions forecast, any Fossil Additions, and also any plant Retirements or forecasting plants at risk of retirement. 

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Congestion Watch Blog

Persistent Congestion on NYISO’s Central East Interface: The End is in Sight | Congestion Watch Blog

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The Central East Interface is one of New York’s most congested corridors, enabling Upstate generation to serve the robust load levels Downstate. Congestion on the interface and the Zone F/Zone E basis spread has increased significantly in the past 1.5 years as a result of construction on the Central East Energy Connect, one of the two projects under the AC Transmission Upgrades PPTN. In addition to construction-associated outages, higher delivered gas prices in eastern New York have contributed to increased congestion.

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Capacity Watch Blog

PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

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For Energy Investors and Generation Owners investing and trading in PJM, it’s vital to have an in-depth market model with deep analysis of the market fundamentals, the latest regulatory updates, and insight into the rule changes and planning parameters that impact PJM BRA clearing prices moving forward. Surface level analysis is not enough when it comes to making investment decisions in the PJM Capacity Market. The PJM BRA for 2024/25 Delivery year is set to begin December 7th, 2022

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Renewables Watch Blog

Renewable Energy PPA Trends & Outlook | Renewables Watch Blog

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Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market’s resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.

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Congestion Watch Blog

RGGI Auction 57 Clears At $13.45, A 3% Drop | Emissions Watch Blog

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The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 57) was held on September 7, 2022. The clearing price was $13.45/ton, three percent lower than the clearing price of $13.90/ton on June 1, 2022 (see Figure 1). Although the clearing price was only $0.45/ton lower than the most recent auction, Auction 57 marks the first time since Auction 45 in September 2019 that the clearing price has declined from the previous auction.

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Renewables Watch Blog

Renewable Energy Development Challenges | Renewables Watch Blog

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Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market’s resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.

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Emissions News

Supreme Court’s EPA Decision to Impact Coal Plant Retirements | Emissions News

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Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that power plant owners have started the process of potentially retiring 3,228 MW of coal-fired generation in the PJM Interconnection’s footprint this month, according to the grid operator’s generator deactivation list. Another 1,024 MW of coal shut down last year. Looking at the explanations for the planned retirements, our Julia Criscuolo, ESAI Power’s Manager of Renewables and Emissions, said about a third are driven by environmental regulations, a quarter by unfavorable economics and roughly 20% by “end of life” plant issues.

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Congestion Watch Blog

Proposed EPA Rule Leads to Quadrupling Group 3 Ozone Season CSAPR NOx Prices | Emissions Watch Blog

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The EPA issued a proposed rule in February 2022 that, if finalized, will implement significant programmatic changes, and establish lower emissions limits to the existing Group 3 Ozone Season Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) beginning in the 2023 ozone season. Following the issuance of this proposed rule, Group 3 CSAPR NOx allowance prices have quadrupled from approximately $6,500/ton in February to $28,500/ton (June 6).

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Congestion Watch Blog

RGGI Auction 56 Update: RGGI Auction Clears At $13.90 | Emissions Watch Blog

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The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 56) was held on June 1, 2022. The clearing price was $13.90/ton, three percent higher than the clearing price of $13.50/ton on March 9, 2022 (see Figure 1). Although the clearing price was only slightly higher than the most recent auction, the $13.90/ton price marks the highest clearing price since the start of the program. Notably, the clearing price fell just short of the 2022 Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) trigger price.

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Congestion Watch Blog

NYISO Central East Congestion to Moderate this summer | Congestion Watch Blog

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Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.

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