Long-Term Outlooks, Forecasts & Drivers
ESAI Power continuously monitors and analyzes the power and natural gas markets in PJM, New York and New England. Our ongoing assessments include reviews of market conditions, granular forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy pricing, fuel input forecasts, policy changes, and how these may impact energy prices and generator spark spreads looking forward.
ESAI helps investors, generation owners, developers, utilities, regulators, and energy buyers understand the micro/macro trends that impact energy prices. ESAI produces 10-year power price forecasts for major price hubs and zones within the three Northeast power markets using security-constrained dispatch modeling.
ESAI delivers ongoing analysis of both North American and Northeast regional natural gas markets. Gas price forecasts and market commentary are included in the Energy WatchTM quarterly and monthly publications. ESAI provides basis forecasts for most Northeast delivered gas pricing points including Tetco M3, Transco Zone 6 New York, and Algonquin City Gate. ESAI tracks pipeline and gas infrastructure projects and analyzes changes in pipeline system constraints that can impact regional basis spreads.
ESAI produces 10-year power price forecasts for major price hubs & zones in the Northeast power markets.
Our Energy Watch Publication
Northeast Energy WatchTM Quarterly – A quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each quarterly report. Forecast data is provided in spreadsheet format which includes monthly on-peak, off-peak, and 7×24 zonal power prices along with delivered natural gas prices for most Northeast regional pricing points.
Also included is ESAI’s long-term natural gas outlook, which reflects fundamental analysis, regional basis spreads, LNG projects under consideration and key issues impacting the gas market. ESAI also closely tracks developments in the renewable energy sector and maintains regional Tier 1 REC forecasts that are published annually but available to clients on request as needed.
Northeast Energy WatchTM Monthly – For shorter-term, 9-month energy price forecasts, see ESAI Power’s Energy WatchTM Monthly report on our Medium-Term Forecasts page.
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