Read all our ESAI Power blog posts covering the latest news about the Eastern U.S. power markets as well as the release of our latest publications.

January 14, 2022

ISO-NE FCA16 Auction Parameters and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

Capacity Watch Blog

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-New England Forward Capacity Auction, FCA16. Clearing Prices are expected to decline from the FCA15 Auction due to a decrease in Net Installed Capacity Requirements (Net ICR) and Net Cost of New Entry (Net CONE).

January 5, 2022

Record LNG Exports Drive Domestic Demand | Natural Gas Watch Blog

Natural Gas Watch Blog

In just 15 years, the U.S. has gone from a net importer of LNG to becoming the world’s largest Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) exporter in 2022. The U.S. will surpass Qatar and Australia with an estimated 14 Bcf/day in exports by the end of 2022, up from 10 Bcf/d of export capability with the completion of the first wave of export facilities in mid-2021. LNG exports continue to be the most significant driver of U.S. natural gas demand.

December 20, 2021

A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

Congestion Watch Blog

High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.

December 6, 2021

RGGI Auction 54 Update | Emissions Watch Blog

Congestion Watch Blog

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 54) was held on December 1, 2021. The clearing price was $13.00/ton, nearly 40 percent higher than the clearing price of $9.30/ton on September 8, 2021 (see Figure 1). For the first time since September 2015, the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) was triggered which is a mechanism of the RGGI program that was implemented to provide additional allowances when auction prices exceed an established price ceiling.

November 23, 2021

PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

Capacity Watch Blog

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC’s revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC’s failure to reach a majority decision on PJM’s proposed MOPR revisions.

November 9, 2021

Winter Brings New Congestion Risks to Power Prices | Congestion Watch Blog

Congestion Watch Blog

The start of winter signals the end of generator maintenance season and a shift away from supply-stack driven congestion towards load and transmission driven congestion. Certain load pocket zones across the Northeast are susceptible to import constraints leading to elevated congestion risk and higher power prices. ESAI expects high natural gas prices to play a key role in December congestion patterns.

October 20, 2021

Northeast’s Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

Energy Watch Blog

The upcoming winter’s natural gas and power prices outlook for PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England continue to trend up despite the warmer-than-normal weather forecast. The forwards appear overvalued and ESAI Power holds its bearish stance on natural gas and power prices. The markets bullish outlook is based on a recent uptick in delivered gas and global LNG prices, but ESAI Power’s outlook has key insights driving a stable gas and power forecast.

October 15, 2021

RGGI Update on CO2 Data, Pennsylvania, North Carolina & Massachusetts CO2 Auction | Emissions Watch Blog

Congestion Watch Blog

In this Emissions Watch blog, we provide several updates pertaining to the RGGI program, including a review of the recently released Q2 2021 CO2 emissions data for states in the RGGI footprint. Compared to the same quarter last year, emissions were 17 percent higher. ESAI also provides an updated RGGI price forecast, which remains below current OTC prices in the longer-term. In Pennsylvania, the Environmental Quality Board (EQB) approved final regulations to join RGGI last month, but opposition to the state joining the program persists.

September 27, 2021

NYISO Renewables Update | Renewables Watch Blog

Renewables Watch Blog

New York continues to push ahead with its renewable energy goals. Just last week, the state announced two significant developments during its kick-off of Climate Week. Governor Kathy Hochul announced the winners of its recently established Tier 4 REC solicitation, which sought proposed generation or transmission projects that would deliver renewable electricity into New York City. Additionally, Hochul called for the expansion of the state’s NY-Sun program to achieve 10 GW of distributed solar by 2030 (up from 6 GW by 2025). Both announcements signal the state’s commitment to reach its goal of 70% renewable electricity by 2030.

September 9, 2021

PJM Renewable Capacity Pricing | Renewables Watch Blog

Renewables Watch Blog

Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market’s resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.