10-Year REC Forecasts, Supply & Demand Projections, and Policy Outlooks
ESAI Power evaluates the renewable energy issues, markets and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. For each region, ESAI Power details the regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and projects the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030. Based on these projections, ESAI Power provides a Class I REC price forecast for the New England and PJM footprints and closely monitors renewable energy supply and demand developments in New York.
ESAI Power’s coverage of renewables includes:
- Class I REC price forecasts and factors driving changes to Class I supply & demand balance, including:
- Changes to individual state Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandates;
- Revisions to ISO load forecasts;
- State RFPs (Class I land-based and offshore wind resources); and
- Status of renewable generation development.
- Renewable energy development trends such as costs of renewable energy technologies, and the changing penetration of different technology types.
- Coverage of relevant federal issues such as offshore wind permitting, and Investment Tax Credit and Production Tax Credit status.
We provide renewable energy price forecasting and analysis of market and policy issues.
ESAI Power’s Renewables Watch Covers Clean Energy & Renewable Power
ESAI Power recently completed its inaugural issue of ESAI’s Renewables WatchTM. This is the first of a quarterly series covering ongoing developments in clean energy and renewable power. Renewables WatchTM brings the same detailed coverage the ESAI Power team has provided for the energy, capacity, and emissions allowance markets to the renewable energy sector.
This service focuses on state and federal policies for clean energy, renewable power, and decarbonization and how the goals of these policies will be met. Subscribers to Renewables WatchTM receive quarterly updates about the supply and demand balance for renewable energy and ESAI Power’s forecast for renewable energy credit (REC) prices in PJM, ISO-NE & NYISO. This ongoing, in-depth coverage provides developers, investors, regulators, and policymakers with an up-to-date, detailed picture of the clean energy sector outlook, ongoing policy developments, and the outlook for related markets.
Each of the first four quarterly issues will provide a comprehensive and in-depth overview of a selected set of topics. Future issues will provide updates in these areas. The first four issues will provide a comprehensive reference with detailed background information about clean energy mandates, decarbonization policy, development/investment opportunities, and market outcomes. ESAI will continue to make these background documents available to subscribers, along with providing updates through the ongoing quarterly issues of Renewables WatchTM.
Renewables WatchTM focuses on:
- Participation by renewable and storage resources in the Northeast Installed Capacity Markets
- State Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements and associated supply, including information on projects selected in various renewable RFPs, historical data pertaining to RPS compliance, and how they affect the outlook for Class I REC prices
- Other state and Federal incentives for Class I resources and associated infrastructure
- An overview of battery storage mandates and incentives by state
ESAI Power welcomes the opportunity to engage with existing customers and new companies to discuss Renewables Watch, discuss the contents of the report, and gain valuable feedback on what subscribers would like to see in future reports. Representative potential topics for future issues and on-going coverage currently are:
- Progress towards decarbonization goals
- Electrification and power demand
- Class II REC programs and carve outs within Class I programs
- Polices and incentives for distributed renewable generation and storage resources
- Capital costs and technology advancements in the clean energy sector
Download the Executive Summary & TOC of Renewables Watch
Renewables Watch Service
Renewables WatchTM provides a quarterly update of regulatory and market factors for solar, wind, hydroelectric, & storage for most of the Eastern United States. Renewables WatchTM provides Class I REC (Renewable Energy Certificates) Price outlooks to 2031 for the ISO-NE & PJM power generation and transmission system as well as the Supply & Demand Balance forecasts for the NYISO power generation and transmission system. Renewables WatchTM outlines regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance forecast for Class I RECs and project the supply and demand balance forecast for the next decade.
Read our latest Renewable Energy White Papers
Renewable Energy Macro Trends WP
U.S. Solar Installed Capacity Is Catching Up To Wind
The U.S wind industry has had a significant head start relative to the solar industry. By 2005, wind installations in the U.S. had almost reached 10 GW while solar installations were just below 0.5 GW (DC). By 2010, in just five years, wind installations increased to 40 GW while solar installations were just a fraction of that at only 2.6 GW. In the past ten years, wind capacity growth has been relatively steady at about 7 GW per year, with a peak addition of 13 GW in 2012.
In contrast to the steady pace of growth in the wind sector, U.S. solar capacity additions have accelerated in the past decade. Figure 1 shows that by 2020, total installed solar capacity (DC) has increased to almost 96 GW, only 19 GW short of installed wind capacity (note that on an AC basis, solar installations are approximately 80 percent lower at 77 GW).
To read rest of the white paper, please visit our white paper download form page.
Renewable Energy Northeast Trends WP
Northeast Offshore Wind Showing Strong Growth
ESAI has examined the interconnection queue data in each of the three Northeast power pools to identify trends in the generation capacity development by fuel type. Specifically, ESAI analyzed capacity additions to the queue by year and fuel type. Here are a few of the highlights from our analysis:
- Development of conventional generation has dwindled to very low levels across PJM, NYISO & ISO-New England.
- Development focus is now almost entirely focused on renewable energy to support demand created by growing state-mandated renewable targets.
- Development of onshore wind is declining significantly, especially in New York and New England, while the development of solar resources is surging.
- Offshore wind takes center stage as the technology with the highest volume of development in New York and New England at 34 GW and 22 GW respectively. At 20 GW, the development of offshore wind in PJM is slightly behind New York and New England.
- As a result of PJM’s larger size, offshore wind development lags NYISO and ISO-New England significantly on a percentage basis.
To read rest of the white paper, please visit our white paper download form page.
Read our Renewables Watch Blog Posts
Read our Renewables Watch blog posts as we evaluate the renewable energy issues, markets, and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. We share the latest regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and provide the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030.
Visit our archive of Renewables Watch blog posts to learn more.
Link to: Contact Us
Contact Us
Please contact us for more information about our research product publications or our consulting services.