Unbiased Power, REC & Capacity Price Forecasts
ESAI Power provides market and regulatory support to Utilities and Retail Electricity Suppliers operating in the ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM power markets. Our market reports and analyst interactions deliver in-depth insights into complex marketplace dynamics to help Utilities & Retail Suppliers make informed decisions in an ever-changing reality.
For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided Utilities and Retail Electricity Suppliers with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy and RECs.
ESAI’s research includes clear outlines of forecast assumptions and updates on market rules and regulatory issues. Analyses also evaluate market risks related to upcoming changes in market rules, and regulations.
Utilities and Retail Suppliers leverage ESAI’s Northeast power market insights to:
- Stay up to date with unbiased near-term and long-term price forecasting.
- Shape monthly purchases to balance your portfolio on a seasonal basis.
- Inform decisions on how much Capacity to buy at Capacity auctions.
- Longer term impact of State RPS & when to buy more renewable energy.
- Enhance budgeting, planning, hedging and forecasting processes.
- Guiding forward purchasing, hedging, and investment decisions.
Reliable Near-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting
ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known and expected changes in market conditions. Scenario analysis allows for further insights into price responses relative to potential shifts in Capacity, Energy, and REC market conditions.
Weekly, monthly, and quarterly market reports keep teams informed of market developments such as growth in renewable resources, changes in load growth projections, generator additions and retirements, trends in Emissions markets (RGGI) and shifts in market rules and regulations that impact forward prices.
With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior analysts, Utilities & Retail Suppliers have a full suite of tools to enhance internal forecasting, procurement strategies, and financial budgeting processes.
Utilities and Retail Electricity Suppliers leverage ESAI’s comprehensive overview of markets, price forecasts, market data, reports and analyst access to help you forecast more accurately and optimize generation asset revenues.
ESAI offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York and New England energy markets. The research includes zonal LMP forecasting developed using dispatch modeling based on current and projected transmission topology and detailed gas pricing projections at specific regional gas delivery points. In Energy WatchTM, ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price forecasts for most zones in these Northeast power pools. Shorter-term, nine-month energy price forecasts are provided for key zones and hubs in ESAI’s monthly Energy WatchTM reports, while weekly outlooks are in ESAI’s Bal-Week and Next-Week market reports.
ESAI delivers a monthly Congestion WatchTM report that presents a one-month outlook for the congestion component of LMP prices in the three Northeast power pools’ most active zones. This report provides insights into LMP basis pricing risks in the coming month due to expected generator and transmission outages. The forecasts and insights provided in Congestion WatchTM are informative for procurement of congestion hedges and how congestion pricing risks will be encountered by utilities and retail suppliers in the upcoming regional FTR markets.
ESAI provides quarterly analysis and insights to support capacity market forecasts for each locational capacity area in the Northeast. Our Capacity forecasts are leveraged by Utilities to inform purchases in the Capacity Markets and auctions.
ESAI closely monitors all aspects of capacity markets, including updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation and retirements, shifts in regional transmission that impact locational capacity areas, and evolving market rules. Additional factors such as market mitigation are addressed and outlined in ESAI’s quarterly Capacity WatchTM reports.
ESAI’s senior analysts are available to provide additional insights into the analysis provided in Capacity WatchTM reports. Other benefits include the Project Evaluation Program, a detailed overview of expected generator retirements and projections for new build projects in each power pool, delivered in spreadsheet format.
Purchase More Strategically
ESAI’s weekly, monthly and quarterly price forecasts help inform how market developments will impact energy, REC and capacity markets and the price outcomes that will affect your customer’s bottom lines. Market forecasts are supported by clear assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market reports or in spreadsheet form for ease of use in revenue, purchasing & hedging projections. Market conditions are always changing and that means that risk is always on the horizon for Utilities & Retail Suppliers.
ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, but market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes. Market reports often include scenario analysis of relevant risk factors. Client-specific scenario analysis can also be made available upon request.
Guiding Forward Purchasing Decisions
Refine your understanding of forward purchases and hedges of Capacity, Energy, and RECs particularly during peak Winter & Summer procurement periods. Mitigate risks and optimize profit potential, while minimizing customer retail rates.
With our insights and price forecasts range from weekly to 10 years, Utilities and Retail Providers can leverage ESAI Power’s analytics to support procurement activities to better position themselves in a competitive market.
With a clear perspective on projected market developments, new opportunities can be evaluated in light of unbiased forecasts and an unvarnished assessment of market and regulatory risks.
ESAI’s team keeps you informed of the policy developments at the state and federal level that impact market outcomes and will update you on early developments in the various ISO/RTO committees.
ESAI Power’s team of consulting experts has vast experience in advising Utilities and Retail Providers on commercial, trading and financial issues, including:
- Capacity Auction Strategies
- State RPS analysis and REC Price forecasts
- Nodal LMP Modeling (Curtailment Assessments or Congestion Outlooks)
- Project Specific Analysis of Policy Outcomes
We help Utilities make sense of factors that may influence prices, such as upcoming retirements, new projects under development, to help you keep your finger on the pulse of pricing and trends. We provide expert witness testimony, including in FERC proceedings, state utility commission hearings, and civil litigation. Our experts and analysts are ready to come alongside your team to provide support for customized market outlooks, regulatory proceedings, or other specialized market-related studies.
Visit our Consulting page to learn more.
Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, New York, and New England.
Energy WatchTM is available as a monthly or quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs.
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to first regional FTR auction closing date.
The Bal-Week and Next-Week reports provide short-term forecasts for key hubs in Northeast power markets; The PJM Western Hub, New York Zones A and J, and the ISO-NE Internal Hub. These weekly reports include analyst commentary on expectations for fundamental factors that present risk to short-term power prices, including Demand, Supply, and Congestion.