Unbiased Power, RECs & Capacity Price Forecasts
ESAI Power provides market and regulatory support to generation and portfolio owners operating in the Northeast power markets. ESAI Power’s market reports and analyst interactions provide in-depth insights into complex market dynamics that help owners make difficult decisions in the ever-changing and evolving Northeast power markets.
For 20 years, ESAI Power has delivered objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling and a solid understanding of the market rules and regulatory issues that can affect market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy and RECs. Our research includes clear outlines of forecast assumptions and updates on market rules and regulatory issues that impact price outcomes. Our analyses also evaluates market risks related to upcoming changes in market rules and regulations.
Generation owners leverage ESAI Power’s Northeast power market insights to:
- Stay up to date with unbiased near-term & long-term price forecasting
- Understand and manage market and regulatory risks
- Understand and manage transmission congestion risks
- Enhance budgeting, planning and forecasting processes
- Assess new opportunities
Reliable Near-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting
ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known and expected changes in market conditions. ESAI often provides scenario analysis to allow further insights into price responses relative to potential shifts in market conditions.
ESAI Power’s weekly, monthly, and quarterly market reports keep teams informed of market developments such as generator additions and retirements, growth in renewable resources, changes in load growth projections, and shifts in market rules and regulations. With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior analysts, generation owners have a full suite of tools to enhance internal forecasting and financial budgeting processes.
Generation owners leverage ESAI’s comprehensive overview of markets, price forecasts, market data, reports and analyst access to help you forecast more accurately and optimize generation asset revenues.
ESAI Power offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York and New England energy markets including zonal LMP forecasting developed through the use of security constrained dispatch modeling that is based on current and projected transmission topology as well as detailed projections of gas pricing at specific regional gas delivery points. ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price forecasts for most zones in the three Northeast power pools in its quarterly Energy WatchTM reports. Shorter term, nine-month energy price forecasts are delivered for key zones and hubs in ESAI’s monthly Energy WatchTM reports, while shorter term weekly outlooks are provided in ESAI’s Bal-Week and Next-Week market reports.
ESAI Power also delivers a monthly Congestion WatchTM report that presents a one-month outlook for the congestion component of LMP prices in the most active zones of the three Northeast power pools. This report provides insights into the LMP basis pricing risks faced by generators in the coming month due to expected generator and transmission outages. The forecasts and insights provided in Congestion WatchTM are informative for managing congestion pricing risks in the regional FTR markets.
Capacity markets are a source of significant revenues for most generators. Every quarter, ESAI Power provides detailed analysis and insights to support capacity market forecasts for each locational capacity area in the Northeast. ESAI also delivers commentary on capacity market developments and activity in California.
ESAI Power closely monitors all aspects of capacity markets including updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation and retirements, shifts in regional transmission that impact locational capacity areas, and evolving market rules. Additional factors such as market mitigation are addressed and outlined in ESAI’s quarterly Capacity WatchTM reports.
ESAI Power’s senior analysts are available to clients to provide further insights and color on analysis provided in the Capacity WatchTM reports. Other benefits include the “Project Evaluation Program”, a detailed overview of expected generator retirements and projections for new build projects in each power pool, delivered in spreadsheet format .
Forecast More Accurately
ESAI’s weekly, monthly and quarterly price forecasts help inform how market developments will impact energy and capacity markets and the price outcomes that will affect your bottom line. Market forecasts are supported by clear assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market reports or in spreadsheet form for ease of use in revenue projections.
Market conditions are always changing and that means that risk is always on the horizon for generation owners. ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, but market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes. Market reports often include scenario analysis of relevant risk factors. Client-specific scenario analysis can also be made available upon request.
Optimize Generation Asset Revenues
Mitigate risks and optimize revenue potential for your existing assets while considering additional investments. With insights and price forecasts that range from weekly to 10 years, generation owners can leverage ESAI Power’s analytics to support corporate development and better position themselves in a competitive market.
With a clear perspective on projected market developments, new opportunities can be evaluated in light of unbiased forecasts and an unvarnished assessment of market and regulatory risks. ESAI’s team will keep you informed of the policy developments at the state and federal level that impact market outcomes and will update you on early developments in the various ISO/RTO committees.
ESAI Power’s team of consulting experts has vast experience in advising generation owners across a wide range of issues including but not limited to:
- Refinancing Support
- Buy-Side Acquisition Support
- Sell-Side Advisory Services
- Revenue Projections (Gross Margin Analysis)
- Nodal LMP Analysis (Curtailment Assessments or Congestion Outlooks)
- Project Specific Analysis of Policy Outcomes
ESAI Power staff has provided expert witness testimony in a number of arenas including FERC proceedings, state utility commission hearings, and civil litigation.
ESAI Power’s experts and analysts are ready to come alongside your team to provide support for your needs in M&A activities, customized market outlooks, regulatory proceedings, or other specialized market-related studies.
Visit our Consulting page to learn more.
Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, New York, and New England.
Energy WatchTM is available as a monthly or quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs.
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to first regional FTR auction closing date.
The Bal-Week and Next-Week reports provide short-term forecasts for key hubs in Northeast power markets; The PJM Western Hub, New York Zones A and J, and the ISO-NE Internal Hub. These weekly reports include analyst commentary on expectations for fundamental factors that present risk to short-term power prices, including Demand, Supply, and Congestion.