Power & Environmental Market Traders
Traders leverage ESAI Power’s market data and insights to assist in their most critical trading & investment decisions. Our objective capacity, energy, carbon, nat-gas, congestion & RECs forecasts give power & environmental market traders a competitive edge.
Power, Capacity, Carbon & Congestion Forecasts
ESAI Power provides an unbiased, informed fundamental view to support power and environmental market traders focused on the US power markets. Our market reports and analyst insights into complex market dynamics help traders make informed trading decisions in the ever-changing and evolving US power markets.
Objective Analysis for Power Traders
For 22 years, ESAI Power has provided traders with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of how market rule changes and regulatory issues impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE & MISO. ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for Capacity, Carbon, Power, Natural Gas and Congestion.
ESAI’s forecasts are published to a client base of generation owners & investors – thus we must remain unbiased. ESAI publishes “the un-varnished truth” in our long-term forecasts. Generation Asset Monitor produces granular plant-by-plant detail to inform our 10-year generation and retirement assumptions.
Power and Environmental Traders leverage ESAI’s Power market insights to:
- Inform FTR Trading decisions.
- Validate Asset Valuations and make informed trades, purchases and sales.
- Stay up to date on regulatory changes and the impact on power and carbon prices.
- Assess how market rule changes will impact gross revenues over time.
- Conduct effective energy asset analysis.
- Form an accurate view of power & environmental market trends and the direction of power prices based on a full understanding of the supply / demand balance.
Transactable Energy Asset Analysis
Power and Environmental market traders need accurate information to make sound decisions. ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known & expected changes in market rules and operating conditions. Our unparalleled market auction coverage allows traders to dig into our market assumptions to understand on a deep, granular level how new generation additions, potential retirements or market rule changes may relate to auction trading dynamics and relative shifts in market conditions.
ESAI Power’s Capacity, Power, NatGas, Congestion, Carbon. & RECs market reports keep trading teams informed of market developments such as congestion trends and patterns, generator additions / retirements, growth in renewable resources, changes in load growth projections, and how emissions market rule & regulatory changes will change prices over the next decade.
With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior experts, power traders have a full suite of tools to support power & environmental trading.
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Power, Environmental & Capacity Markets
Power Markets Trends & Forecasts
ESAI offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York, & New England energy markets.
Our forecasts include zonal LMP forecasting developed using dispatch modeling based on current and projected transmission topology and detailed natural gas pricing projections at specific regional gas delivery points.
In Energy WatchTM, ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price forecasts for most zones in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE. Medium-term, nine-month energy price forecasts are provided for key zones and hubs. Our weekly outlooks are published in ESAI’s Bal-Week and Next-Week market reports.
For FTR Traders, ESAI delivers a monthly Congestion WatchTM report that presents a one-month outlook for the congestion component of LMP prices in PJM, NY & NE’s most active zones. We provide insights into LMP basis pricing risks faced by generators next month due to expected generator & transmission outages. The forecasts and insights inform trading decisions and management of congestion pricing risks in FTR markets.
Transmission WatchTM delivers an in-depth look at transmission investment, project updates and important challenges facing independent and utility owned transmission projects.
Capacity markets are a source of significant revenues for generation assets. ESAI provides quarterly analysis and insights to support capacity market forecasts for every capacity area across ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, & MISO.
Structured traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on changing supply and demand conditions by tracking key market indicators and potential policy changes.
ESAI closely monitors the ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO capacity markets, including updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation & retirements, shifts in regional transmission impacting capacity areas, and evolving market rules. Additional factors such as market mitigation & queue delays are addressed and outlined in ESAI’s Capacity WatchTM reports.
Traders operating in the bilateral market stay up to date with recent changes in Capacity prices. Our Generation Asset Monitor is a detailed database of expected generator retirements and projections for new build projects by technology in each power pool.
ESAI produces deep analysis & long-term forecasts for RGGI CO2, RECs, SO2, Annual / Seasonal Nox (CSAPR group 2 & 3), to support environmental products traders.
Renewables WatchTM coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric and storage. For PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE ESAI details the regulatory, interconnection queue challenges, and retirement assumptions that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I RECs, keeping a close eye on renewable energy supply and demand to forecast Class I RECs.
Emissions WatchTM coverage includes RGGI Program analysis and carbon price forecasts at both a state & RTO level. ESAI follows carbon market developments at the fed, regional and state levels that impact the emissions markets. We report on changes to existing regulations (Mercury & Air Toxics, CSAPR & Particulate Matter 2.5) and analyze the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations.
Unbiased Partner for Power Traders
ESAI Power’s market data and insights are used by Power & Environmental market traders to support their most critical trading decisions. ESAI is well known for objectivity, since we publish to a large subscriber base of market participants every week, month & quarter – we always deliver unbiased, objective power & environmental forecasts to subscribers.
Market forecasts are backed by transparent assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market reports or in excel form for ease of use in revenue and margin projections. Market conditions constantly change, which means risk and upside are always on the horizon for traders.
ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, and market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes. Client-specific scenario analysis and custom forecasts can be produced on request on a fixed price, fixed scope basis.
Strategize for Auction Activities
Power markets and Environmental traders leverage ESAI Power’s analytics to better understand the supply stack dynamics, movements in the interconnection queue, upcoming retirements, and plants at-risk of retirement to better inform their view of the market supply/demand balance.
Our long-term forecasts are used regularly to validate revenue streams, and gross margin forecasts in support of structured trading, monthly auctions, as well as seasonal and annual auction bid strategies.
With 22-years experience, ESAI has valued the vast majority of assets in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE and has an excellent reputation in the financial markets for sound fundamental power price forecasting.
ESAI informs you of state, regional, and fed-level policy developments that impact power, congestion, and environmental trading. We also update clients on early developments in the various ISO/RTO committees.
Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE & MISO.
Energy WatchTM is available as a monthly or quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs.
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to first regional FTR auction closing date.
The Bal-Week and Next-Week reports provide short-term forecasts for key hubs in Northeast power markets; The PJM Western Hub, New York Zones A and J, and the ISO-NE Internal Hub. These weekly reports include analyst commentary on expectations for fundamental factors that present risk to short-term power prices, including Demand, Supply, and Congestion.