Macro Trends in Renewable Energy | Energy Watch Blog
Published December 23, 2020
In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks.
ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.
Detailed supply and demand forecasts underpin ESAI’s REC forecasts for New England and PJM. ESAI also provides an overview of REC price outcomes in New York from NYSERDA’s central procurement process.
ESAI examines Renewable Energy Macro Trends with regards to both U.S. and Northeast generation investment. Total U.S. installed solar capacity (DC) is catching up to a total installed wind capacity. However, with respect to actual generation, solar still lags significantly behind wind output. In the Northeast power pools, ESAI examines development trends as seen in the interconnection queue data. PJM generation development interest has shifted away from gas-fired capacity and is now focused on solar. In New York and New England, development interest has also shifted away from gas, but the focus is primarily on a combination of offshore wind, battery storage, and solar. ESAI’s natural gas outlook provides an overview of Northeast regional gas pipeline development in relation to rising production. An assessment of pipeline takeaway headroom of about 5 Bcf/d in 2022 suggests that Marcellus/Utica production should top out at near 39 Bcf/d, at which point pipeline takeaway capabilities will become constrained.
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ESAI Power evaluates the renewable energy issues, markets and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. For each region, ESAI Power details the regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and projects the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030.
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Energy Watch MonthlyTM provides nine-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.
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