Northeast Energy WatchTM ArchivesEnergy Watch

We provide two Energy WatchTM publications.

Northeast Energy WatchTM Quarterly is a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each quarterly report. Forecast data is provided in spreadsheet format which includes monthly on-peak, off-peak, and 7×24 zonal power prices along with delivered natural gas prices for most Northeast regional pricing points. Visit our Energy page to learn more.

Northeast Energy WatchTM Monthly provides nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expectations for electricity demand and variations with seasonal weather forecasts, transmission and generation outages, and delivered forward gas prices. In addition to the nine-month outlooks, ESAI provides a look-back analysis of the previous month’s pricing dynamics to understand the specific impacts of outages and changes to expected demand conditions. Visit our Medium-Term Forecasts page to learn more.

Posts

Energy Watch Blog

Northeast's Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

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The upcoming winter's natural gas and power prices outlook for PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England continue to trend up despite the warmer-than-normal weather forecast. The forwards appear overvalued and ESAI Power holds its bearish stance on natural gas and power prices. The markets bullish outlook is based on a recent uptick in delivered gas and global LNG prices, but ESAI Power's outlook has key insights driving a stable gas and power forecast.
Energy Watch Blog

Offshore Wind is Blowing Through NYISO | Energy Watch Blog

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This blog looks into the impact that offshore wind development in NYISO has on gas-fired generation facilities and their net energy revenues. The recent approval of CLCPA’s minimum statewide offshore wind goal and NYSERDA’s authority to procure offshore renewable energy credits (ORECs) puts renewables at the forefront of NYISOs market development. The Boardwalk Offshore Wind and Beacon Offshore Wind Project that were recently awarded OREC contracts are just the start of the lofty 9 GW offshore wind target.
Energy Watch Quarterly Graphic

Energy Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

Our Q2 issue of Energy WatchTM came out this week.  In our Q2 Energy WatchTM report ESAI Power provides an update on the Seasonal NOx regulations under the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the expected impact on allowance prices, Northeast power plant emissions, and wholesale power prices.  For each ISO, ESAI Power provides an overview of projected net energy revenue expectations for key generation technologies.
Energy Watch Blog

Power Forwards in PJM Trend Higher, RGGI CO2 Allowances Increase | Energy Watch Blog

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June has brought about high temperatures and strong electricity demand to the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE power markets with elevated prices. Northeast power futures reacted quickly and are trading significantly higher. Despite this rally in prices, ESAI's gas outlook is stable and believes the futures are overvalued. In this blog, we’ll provide a brief update on each of the ISO’s and an update on the RGGI Quarterly Auction (Auction 52).
Energy Watch Blog

PJM Power Prices Likely To Heat Up This Summer | Energy Watch Blog

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ESAI Power’s summer forecast for power prices in PJM is bullish. Both Day-Ahead and Spot markets should see increased volatility due to stronger loads, robust gas prices, and generation retirements. In this blog, we’ll provide a preview into the ESAI Power Energy Watch bullish forecasts and expected generation changes that will impact energy prices in PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England. The upside potential for delivered natural gas and power prices across the Northeast will keep the ISO markets interesting in the upcoming months.
Energy Watch Quarterly Graphic

Energy Watch™ Report Released for Q1 2021

In this report, we cover load developments and their impact on wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM, and ISO-New England. In most areas of New York, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. PJM’s 2021 Load Report projects energy demand for 2021 to be 1.2 percent lower than in the 2020 Load Report. In New England, higher projected energy efficiency and distributed solar growth are expected to offset increases in demand from electric vehicles and space heating.
Energy Watch Blog

Energy Demand in NYISO, PJM, & ISO-New England and How They Impact Wholesale Electricity Prices | Energy Watch Blog

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Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England. This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions. In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. Longer-term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections.
Energy Watch Monthly

Northeast Energy Watch Monthly™ Report for March, 2021 | Energy Watch Blog

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This monthly issue of ESAI’s Northeast Energy Watch MonthlyTM provides a summary of the February prices surging in the Northeast Electricity prices.  As Spring approaches, milder weather will moderate electricity demand, gas prices and power prices across the Northeast.
Energy Watch Blog

Feb Power Prices Surged, March Equinox Moderates Demand & RGGI Auction No. 51 update

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In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO.  Here is what to look for: 1) PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices. 2) On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu. 3) New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.
Energy Watch Blog

Macro Trends in Renewable Energy | Energy Watch Blog

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In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks. ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.