New York continues to push ahead with its renewable energy goals. Just last week, the state announced two significant developments during its kick-off of Climate Week. Governor Kathy Hochul announced the winners of its recently established Tier 4 REC solicitation, which sought proposed generation or transmission projects that would deliver renewable electricity into New York City. Additionally, Hochul called for the expansion of the state’s NY-Sun program to achieve 10 GW of distributed solar by 2030 (up from 6 GW by 2025). Both announcements signal the state’s commitment to reach its goal of 70% renewable electricity by 2030.
Renewable generation in PJM has been increasing over the past few years and will play a larger role in the market’s resource mix going forward. Coal-fired capacity is retiring at a rapid pace, and the interconnection queue is heavily comprised of renewable capacity. There is approximately 133 GW of utility-scale solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with queue positions in various stages of development.
Today, ESAI Power, a market research and consulting firm, announced the immediate availability of its Renewables WatchTM Service which provides Class I REC (Renewable Energy Certificates) Price outlooks to 2030 for the ISO-NE & PJM power generation and transmission systems and the Supply & Demand Balance forecasts for the NYISO power generation and transmission system.
ESAI Power’s summer forecast for power prices in PJM is bullish. Both Day-Ahead and Spot markets should see increased volatility due to stronger loads, robust gas prices, and generation retirements. In this blog, we’ll provide a preview into the ESAI Power Energy Watch bullish forecasts and expected generation changes that will impact energy prices in PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England. The upside potential for delivered natural gas and power prices across the Northeast will keep the ISO markets interesting in the upcoming months.
Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England. This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions. In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly. Longer-term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections.
In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO. Here is what to look for: 1) PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices. 2) On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu. 3) New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.
In our recent issue of Energy Watch, we provided clients with our annual update of renewable energy in NYISO, ISO-New England, and PJM. For each of the ISOs, we provide details of demand, including state RPS mandates and load outlooks. ESAI Power provides a detailed analysis of supply including generation by resource type and expected generation additions by type (GW). Our analysis is inclusive of Offshore Wind, Installed Wind, Storage, Solar (DC), Solar (AC), Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, and Biomass.
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ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets in the Northeast region of the US: PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Since 2001, ESAI has been providing market-focused research product content and custom consulting services for Northeast power market participants including investors (banks, private equity, & hedge funds) & developers, generation owners & operators, utilities & retail electricity suppliers, regulators & RTOs, traders, and end-users & buyers.
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