Generation owners and their investors are placing big bets (often in the hundreds of millions of dollars) in the ISO-New England Capacity Market. As Mark Christie, FERC Commissioner, put it in March 2023: “Capacity Markets are characterized by such hopeless complexity and impenetrable opacity that they represent the example of a game that only insiders can play and win.” ESAI is now offering the opportunity to request our Pre-Auction Capacity Price Forecasts for ISO New England’s Forward Capacity Auction (FCA) over the past 7 Capacity Auctions.
In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-NE FCA17, Forward Capacity Auction. ESAI’s coverage includes auction parameters, qualified capacity, and expected auction dynamics. These are all detailed in our Capacity Watch report.
Ethan Howland reports in Utility Dive that ISO New England has proposed ending its “minimum offer price rule” in 2025, with a transition that exempts up to 700 MW of qualified state-supported capacity — or roughly 2,000 MW of nameplate capacity — from the MOPR over the next two capacity auctions. Learn what Scott Niemann, ESAI Power director and principal, says about ending the rule.
Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.
In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the ISO-New England Forward Capacity Auction, FCA16. Clearing Prices are expected to decline from the FCA15 Auction due to a decrease in Net Installed Capacity Requirements (Net ICR) and Net Cost of New Entry (Net CONE).
High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.
ESAI Power LLC
401 Edgewater Place, Suite 640
Wakefield, MA 01880
ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets in the Northeast region of the US: PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Since 2001, ESAI has been providing market-focused research product content and custom consulting services for Northeast power market participants including investors (banks, private equity, & hedge funds) & developers, generation owners & operators, utilities & retail electricity suppliers, regulators & RTOs, traders, and end-users & buyers.
Who We Serve
- All Content Offers
- Clean Energy Service Brochure
- Forecast Methodology Brochure
- Free Trial Report Request Form
- Investors & Developers Brochure
- Long-Term Forecasts Brochure
- Near Term Service Brochure
- Owners & Operators Brochure
- Power Purchasing Agreements WP
- Quarterly Power Service Brochure
- Subscribe To Our Newsletter
- Utilities & Electric Suppliers Brochure
- WholeView Service Brochure
- ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction Forecast Track Record November 27, 2023
- PJM Capacity Auction Track Record 2016 – 2023 November 21, 2023
- ISO-NE Energy Watch Update | October 2023 | Energy Watch Blog October 11, 2023
- NYISO Capacity Prices Volatile Heading into Winter 2023-24 | Capacity Watch Blog October 9, 2023
- RGGI Auction 61 – Clearing Prices Up Nearly 9% | Emissions Watch Blog September 8, 2023
- Will Virginia leave RGGI? | Emissions News August 31, 2023
- PJM Interconnection Process Update | Generation Asset Monitor Blog July 24, 2023
- NYISO Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog July 3, 2023
- RGGI Auction 60 – Clearing Price of $12.73/ton | Emissions Watch Blog June 9, 2023
- MISO PRA Scheduled to start April 18th | Capacity Watch Blog March 28, 2023
- Platts Global Power Markets™ Conference April 17-19 March 28, 2023
- Power and Energy Markets Analyst March 17, 2023
- Senior Research Manager March 16, 2023
- RGGI Auction 59 – Clearing Price of $12.50/ton | Emissions Watch Blog March 10, 2023
- ISO-NE FCA17 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog February 24, 2023