MISO Capacity PRA 2023/24 Scheduled to start April 18th | Capacity Watch Blog
March 28th, 2023 | Blog Post | capacity-watch, miso
MISO has delayed their Capacity Auction PRA for 2023/24. The auction was set to begin on March 28th, and is now scheduled to open the offer window on April 18th at 8AM EPT for market participants.
FERC had several concerns about the fairness of MISO’s calculations and requested proof that they are fair or, alternatively, to revise them. Specifically, FERC Commissioner Mark Christie concurred with an order that directed MISO to either:
- Show cause that its UCAP Calculation/ISAC Ratio for the 2023/24 PRA is consistent with its Tariff
OR
- Explain how MISO will revise the Ratio to account for the corrected ISAC Values
You can read the full statement from FERC here: Commissioner Christie concurs with FERC Order
MISO had planned on conducting the four seasonal auctions concurrently in April. MISO will now comply with the FERC order and seek to get the auction run as quickly as possible. MISO is recalculating the ratios and refreshing Schedule 53 resource SAC values. The updated timeline for the 2023/24 Planning Resource Auction (PRA) is provided below:
ESAI brings 20 years of experience analyzing and forecasting the Capacity Markets in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, into our Capacity coverage of MISO.
ESAI maintains a MISO Generation Asset Monitor (Delivered to subscribers in excel) that tracks the MISO Interconnection queue to forecast Renewables Additions that produces a Probability Weighted Renewable Additions forecast, any Fossil Additions, and also any plant Retirements or forecasting plants at risk of retirement. This is input to produce our 10-year MISO forward Supply curve that is then balanced with Demand to help us produce our long term MISO Capacity PRA 2023/24 Forecast.
Every quarter, ESAI provides updates on supply & demand fundamentals, market rule developments, & policy changes that impact MISO capacity market outcomes. This service includes:
- Pre-Auction forecast and briefing prior to each PRA.
- Post-Auction results and impact on MISO Capacity prices moving forward.
- Quarterly briefing (PowerPoint) summarizing recent developments related to the MISO RA market including 10-year supply and demand outlook.
- Quarterly MISO PRA 2023/24 forecast update
- MISO Generation Asset Monitor (GAM) published monthly with New Capacity and Retirement Data
- Annual Market Briefing And Update
- Full Analyst Access to our team of MISO Capacity experts.
For more information go here for our MISO Capacity Service. For our full Capacity Forecasts, see our Capacity Market Coverage. And to request access to ESAI’s Quarterly Power Service, please request a free trial.
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ESAI Power provides investment, valuation, and risk assessment support for financial firms investing in the Northeast power markets. For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided investors with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy & RECs. Our market reports and analyst insights into complex market dynamics help investors make difficult investment decisions in the ever-changing and evolving Northeast power markets.
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Capacity WatchTM provides quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, New York, and New England. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s Project Database is updated and presented with each issue.
MISO Capacity Market Service
Our MISO Capacity Market Service analysis reports offer an in-depth 10-year supply and demand forecast on the MISO Capacity market. Every quarter, ESAI provides updates on supply & demand fundamentals, market rule developments, & policy changes that impact MISO capacity market outcomes. This service includes: Briefing about the 2022/23 PRA results, Quarterly briefing (PowerPoint) summarizing recent developments related to the MISO RA market, Auction results, FERC filings and rule changes, Stakeholder discussions and more.
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