Energy Demand in NYISO, PJM, & ISO-New England and How They Impact Wholesale Electricity Prices | Energy Watch Blog

Published March 17, 2021

Based upon changes in demand, we produce analysis and a price forecast to predict wholesale electricity prices in NYISO, PJM and ISO-New England.  This week’s Energy Watch report provides an overview of load developments and a 10-year price forecast for each of the Northeast regions.

In most areas of ISONY, 2021 energy demand is projected to be down slightly.  Longer term projections under the preliminary 2021 NYISO Gold Book are lower than the 2020 Gold Book projections. Due to energy efficiency demand reductions and new demand from EVs and electrification related to heating (driven by CLCPA requirements), New York will shift to winter peaking around 2040 if the New York’s Climate Act initiatives are accomplished.

PJM’s 2021 Load Report projects energy demand for 2021 to be 1.2 percent lower than in the 2020 Load Report. Energy demand growth in the 2021 Load Report is 0.3 percent, down from 0.7 percent in the 2020 Load Report. EV and electrification growth do not have significant impacts on PJM long-term load growth and the RTO is expected to maintain its summer peaking profile. However, Southern MAAC will shift to winter peaking by 2031 due to energy efficiency measures.

New England has released its draft final 2021 load forecast, which will be included in the 2021 CELT report published in May. Higher projected energy efficiency and distributed solar growth are expected to offset increases in demand from electric vehicles and space heating, resulting in slightly lower net demand compared to the 2020 CELT forecast.

ESAI’s natural gas outlook provides an update on LNG exports. The first wave of LNG expansions is complete with the startup of Cheniere’s Unit 3 in Corpus Christi in March. Export capacity is now 11 Bcf/d with feed gas demand slightly above 12 Bcf/d operating at full capacity. Three second wave projects are under construction and 22 other projects under consideration.

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ESAI Power evaluates the renewable energy issues, markets and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. For each region, ESAI Power details the regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and projects the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030.

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Energy Watch MonthlyTM provides nine-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.

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Energy Watch QuarterlyTM provides a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each quarterly report.