February Power Prices Surged | Energy Watch Blog

Published March 17, 2021 | energy-watch

In the March issue of Energy Watch, we produce our 9-month Northeast Electricity Price forecast for PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO.  Here is what to look for:

  • PJM power prices surged in February as cold winter weather boosted delivered natural gas prices.
  • On-Peak power prices in ISO-New England jumped to $82.90/MWH in February as cold winter weather drove the average price of delivered natural gas at Algonquin Citygate to $8.89/MMBtu.
  • New York power prices climbed in February as cold weather supported strong gas prices. On-peak power prices in Zones J and G cleared at $73.89/MWh and $67.41MWh, respectively.

As Spring approaches, milder weather will moderate electricity demand, gas prices and power prices across the Northeast. Some potential for cold weather persists in New England and New York.

Gas prices at Algonquin Citygate and Iroquois Zone 2 maintain a positive basis to Henry Hub for March and April.

Although the pandemic continues to suppress electricity demand in PJM and New York, impact has moderated.  Overall loads in both areas track approximately 1% below normally expected loads. New England loads remain at or above pre-COVID-19 expectations.

The most recent RGGI auction No. 51 was held on March 3. The clearing price for RGGI CO2 allowances was $7.60/ton, a 2.5% increase over the previous auction results of $7.41/ton on December 2, 2020.

U.S. dry gas production averaged only 85.9 Bcf/d in February due to cold-weather-related production issues. Gas inventories stand at 1.793 Tcf, as of March 5 th , 141 Bcf below the 5-year average.

For more information about our nine-month zonal electricity price forecast, see our Medium-Term Forecasts page.

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