Medium-Term Forecasts

ESAI Power’s Medium Term power forecasts are Energy Watch Monthly and Congestion Watch.

Energy Watch Monthly provides nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expectations for electricity demand and variations with seasonal weather forecasts, transmission and generation outages, and delivered forward gas prices.  In addition to the nine-month outlooks, ESAI provides a look-back analysis of the previous month’s pricing dynamics to understand the specific impacts of outages and changes to expected demand conditions.

Energy Watch also provides details on activities in the RGGI carbon markets, including assessments of auction results and the current status of RGGI allowance supply and demand.  Natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are also provided including tracking of pipeline development in the Northeast region.

Congestion Watch analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to first regional FTR auction closing date.

Our market experts assess congestion drivers and historical transmission constraints to quantify impacts on the congestion component of locational marginal prices. Using market simulation models, ESAI Power analyzes changing demand expectations, generation and transmission outages, and transmission projects to predict congestion patterns for the following month.