Our Medium-Term Forecast Publications
ESAI Power offers two medium-term, monthly power forecasts for the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE energy regions: Congestion Watch and Energy Monthly. Congestion Watch is our monthly congestion report that provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs. Energy Monthly is a nine-month zonal pricing forecast, a discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers, and a natural gas forecast.
Congestion Watch
Congestion WatchTM is our monthly congestion report provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast. The report provides expert insights into key drivers for congestion pricing such as transmission and generation outages, system load and changes to fuel prices.
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to the first regional FTR auction closing date. Our market experts assess congestion drivers and historical transmission constraints to quantify impacts on the congestion component of locational marginal prices. Using market simulation models, ESAI Power analyzes changing demand expectations, generation and transmission outages, and transmission projects to predict congestion patterns for the following month.
Read our Congestion WatchTM blog posts to learn more about latest congestion news. To subscribe to Congestion WatchTM, visit our Service Packages page to learn about subscription options.
Energy Monthly
Energy Monthly is a nine-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.
Energy Monthly provides nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expectations for electricity demand and variations with seasonal weather forecasts, transmission and generation outages, and delivered forward gas prices. In addition to the nine-month outlooks, Energy Monthly provides a look-back analysis of the previous month’s pricing dynamics to understand the specific impacts of outages and changes to expected demand conditions.
Energy Monthly also provides details on activities in the RGGI carbon markets, including assessments of auction results and the current status of RGGI allowance supply and demand. Natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are also provided, including tracking of pipeline development in the Northeast region.
For long-term energy price forecasts, please visit our Energy WatchTM quarterly report and our Energy page.
Nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expected electricity demand, weather forecasts, transmission & generation outages, and forward gas prices.
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