Our Medium-Term Forecast Publications
ESAI Power offers two medium-term, monthly power forecasts for the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE energy regions: Congestion Watch and Energy Monthly. Congestion Watch is our monthly congestion report that provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs. Energy Monthly is a nine-month zonal pricing forecast, a discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers, and a natural gas forecast.

Congestion Watch
Congestion WatchTM is our monthly congestion report provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast. The report provides expert insights into key drivers for congestion pricing such as transmission and generation outages, system load and changes to fuel prices.
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to the first regional FTR auction closing date. Our market experts assess congestion drivers and historical transmission constraints to quantify impacts on the congestion component of locational marginal prices. Using market simulation models, ESAI Power analyzes changing demand expectations, generation and transmission outages, and transmission projects to predict congestion patterns for the following month.
Read our Congestion WatchTM blog posts to learn more about latest congestion news. To subscribe to Congestion WatchTM, visit our Service Packages page to learn about subscription options.
Energy Monthly

Energy Monthly is a nine-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.
Energy Monthly provides nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expectations for electricity demand and variations with seasonal weather forecasts, transmission and generation outages, and delivered forward gas prices. In addition to the nine-month outlooks, Energy Monthly provides a look-back analysis of the previous month’s pricing dynamics to understand the specific impacts of outages and changes to expected demand conditions.
Energy Monthly also provides details on activities in the RGGI carbon markets, including assessments of auction results and the current status of RGGI allowance supply and demand. Natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are also provided, including tracking of pipeline development in the Northeast region.
For long-term energy price forecasts, please visit our Energy WatchTM quarterly report and our Energy page.
Nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expected electricity demand, weather forecasts, transmission & generation outages, and forward gas prices.
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ESAI Power LLC
401 Edgewater Place, Suite 640
Wakefield, MA 01880
Phone: +1.781.245.2036
ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets in the Northeast region of the US: PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Since 2001, ESAI has been providing market-focused research product content and custom consulting services for Northeast power market participants including investors (banks, private equity, & hedge funds) & developers, generation owners & operators, utilities & retail electricity suppliers, regulators & RTOs, traders, and end-users & buyers.
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Recent Posts
- MISO PRA Scheduled to start April 18th | Capacity Watch Blog March 28, 2023
- NYISO Summer Strip Auction Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog March 27, 2023
- Power and Energy Markets Analyst March 17, 2023
- Senior Research Manager March 16, 2023
- RGGI Auction 59 – Clearing Price of $12.50/ton | Emissions Watch Blog March 10, 2023
- ISO-NE FCA17 Auction Dynamics and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog February 24, 2023
- PM2.5 and NAAQS Update | Emissions Watch Blog February 15, 2023
- FERC Approved PJM Queue Reform Proposal | Renewables Watch Blog February 2, 2023
- EPA Proposes Tightening Fine Particulate Matter Standard, Potentially Affecting Coal Power Plants | Emissions News January 6, 2023
- RGGI Auction 58 Clears at $12.99 | Emissions Watch Blog December 9, 2022
- MISO Capacity Price Forecast PRA 2023/24 | Capacity Watch Blog November 2, 2022
- Persistent Congestion on NYISO’s Central East Interface: The End is in Sight | Congestion Watch Blog October 18, 2022
- PJM BRA 2024/25 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog October 18, 2022
- Renewable Energy PPA Trends & Outlook | Renewables Watch Blog October 5, 2022
- RGGI Auction 57 Clears At $13.45, A 3% Drop | Emissions Watch Blog September 9, 2022