ESAI Power’s Medium Term power forecasts are Energy Watch Monthly and Congestion Watch.
Energy WatchMonthly provides nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expectations for electricity demand and variations with seasonal weather forecasts, transmission and generation outages, and delivered forward gas prices. In addition to the nine-month outlooks, ESAI provides a look-back analysis of the previous month’s pricing dynamics to understand the specific impacts of outages and changes to expected demand conditions.
Energy Watch also provides details on activities in the RGGI carbon markets, including assessments of auction results and the current status of RGGI allowance supply and demand. Natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are also provided including tracking of pipeline development in the Northeast region.
Congestion Watch analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to first regional FTR auction closing date.
Our market experts assess congestion drivers and historical transmission constraints to quantify impacts on the congestion component of locational marginal prices. Using market simulation models, ESAI Power analyzes changing demand expectations, generation and transmission outages, and transmission projects to predict congestion patterns for the following month.
Nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expected electricity demand, weather forecasts, transmission & generation outages, and forward gas prices.
Congestion WatchTM Ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast, our monthly congestion report provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO. Congestion WatchTM provides expert insights into key drivers for congestion pricing such as transmission and generation outages, system load and changes to fuel prices.
Energy Watch MonthlyTM Nine-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.
For long-term energy price forecasts, please see our EnergyWatch Quarterly Report on our Energy page.