ESAI Power’s Medium Term power forecasts are Energy Watch Monthly and Congestion Watch.
Energy Watch Monthly provides nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expectations for electricity demand and variations with seasonal weather forecasts, transmission and generation outages, and delivered forward gas prices. In addition to the nine-month outlooks, ESAI provides a look-back analysis of the previous month’s pricing dynamics to understand the specific impacts of outages and changes to expected demand conditions.
Energy Watch also provides details on activities in the RGGI carbon markets, including assessments of auction results and the current status of RGGI allowance supply and demand. Natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are also provided including tracking of pipeline development in the Northeast region.
Congestion Watch analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems and analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Reports are issued prior to first regional FTR auction closing date.
Our market experts assess congestion drivers and historical transmission constraints to quantify impacts on the congestion component of locational marginal prices. Using market simulation models, ESAI Power analyzes changing demand expectations, generation and transmission outages, and transmission projects to predict congestion patterns for the following month.
Nine-month zonal on-peak price forecasts based on expected electricity demand, weather forecasts, transmission & generation outages, and forward gas prices.
Our Medium-Term Forecast Publications

Congestion WatchTM Ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast, our monthly congestion report provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO. Congestion WatchTM provides expert insights into key drivers for congestion pricing such as transmission and generation outages, system load and changes to fuel prices.

Energy Watch MonthlyTM Nine-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, as well as a natural gas forecast which provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth in this monthly is based on both ESAI and forward fuel forecasts and compared with forward market energy prices.
For long-term energy price forecasts, please see our EnergyWatch Quarterly Report on our Energy page.
Contact Us
Please contact us for more information about our research product publications or our consulting services.
About Us
Company Overview
ESAI Power LLC
401 Edgewater Place, Suite 640
Wakefield, MA 01880
Phone: +1.781.245.2036
ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets in the Northeast region of the US: PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Since 2001, ESAI has been providing market-focused research product content and custom consulting services for Northeast power market participants including investors (banks, private equity, & hedge funds) & developers, generation owners & operators, utilities & retail electricity suppliers, regulators & RTOs, traders, and end-users & buyers.
Products
Who We Serve
Content Offers
Recent Posts
- Proposed EPA Rule Leads to Quadrupling Group 3 Ozone Season CSAPR NOx Prices | Emissions Watch Blog June 7, 2022
- RGGI Auction 56 Update: RGGI Auction Clears At $13.90 | Emissions Watch Blog June 3, 2022
- NYISO Central East Congestion to Moderate this summer | Congestion Watch Blog May 20, 2022
- ESAI Power Sponsors ACORE Renewable Energy Finance Forum | Renewables News May 17, 2022
- PJM BRA 2023/24 Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog May 13, 2022
- Are Power Forwards Overvalued for Summer 2022? | Energy Watch Blog May 11, 2022
- ISO-NE Proposes Ending MOPR in 2025, with a Transition Aimed at Protecting Grid Reliability | Energy News April 4, 2022
- Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog March 23, 2022
- Coal Plant Owners Seek to Shut 3.2 GW in PJM in Face of Economic, Regulatory and Market Pressures | Emissions News March 22, 2022
- EPA Wastewater Rules and PJM Coal Retirements | Emissions Watch Blog March 1, 2022
- Regulations Affecting Coal Combustion Residuals (CCRs) Under EPA Rules | Energy Watch Blog February 24, 2022
- Power and Energy Markets Research Analyst February 17, 2022
- ISO-NE FCA16 Auction Parameters and Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog January 14, 2022
- Record LNG Exports Drive Domestic Demand | Natural Gas Watch Blog January 5, 2022
- FERC Orders PJM To Change Reserve Market Rules, Delay Capacity Auctions | Capacity News December 23, 2021