News

A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

December 20, 2021

High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.

RGGI Auction 54 Update | Emissions Watch Blog

December 6, 2021

The most recent RGGI quarterly auction (Auction 54) was held on December 1, 2021. The clearing price was $13.00/ton, nearly 40 percent higher than the clearing price of $9.30/ton on September 8, 2021 (see Figure 1). For the first time since September 2015, the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) was triggered which is a mechanism of the RGGI program that was implemented to provide additional allowances when auction prices exceed an established price ceiling.

PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

November 23, 2021

In ESAI’s latest Capacity Watch report, we analyze the three major rule changes that will impact pricing in the upcoming PJM Base Residual Auction (2023/24 BRA) and the subsequent influence on clearing prices out to 2030. These rule changes include FERC's revised approval of ELCC, a default MSOC based upon Net ACR, and FERC's failure to reach a majority decision on PJM's proposed MOPR revisions.

Winter Brings New Congestion Risks to Power Prices | Congestion Watch Blog

November 9, 2021

The start of winter signals the end of generator maintenance season and a shift away from supply-stack driven congestion towards load and transmission driven congestion. Certain load pocket zones across the Northeast are susceptible to import constraints leading to elevated congestion risk and higher power prices. ESAI expects high natural gas prices to play a key role in December congestion patterns.

Northeast’s Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

October 20, 2021

The upcoming winter's natural gas and power prices outlook for PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England continue to trend up despite the warmer-than-normal weather forecast. The forwards appear overvalued and ESAI Power holds its bearish stance on natural gas and power prices. The markets bullish outlook is based on a recent uptick in delivered gas and global LNG prices, but ESAI Power's outlook has key insights driving a stable gas and power forecast.

RGGI Update on CO2 Data, Pennsylvania, North Carolina & Massachusetts CO2 Auction | Emissions Watch Blog

October 15, 2021

In this Emissions Watch blog, we provide several updates pertaining to the RGGI program, including a review of the recently released Q2 2021 CO2 emissions data for states in the RGGI footprint. Compared to the same quarter last year, emissions were 17 percent higher. ESAI also provides an updated RGGI price forecast, which remains below current OTC prices in the longer-term. In Pennsylvania, the Environmental Quality Board (EQB) approved final regulations to join RGGI last month, but opposition to the state joining the program persists.

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Capacity Watch: Provides a regional 10-year capacity price forecast and an in-depth analysis of current market issues. affecting price outcomes. Impacts of reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values.
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News

A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

RGGI Auction 54 Update | Emissions Watch Blog

PJM BRA 2023/24 Rule Changes and Auction Parameters: Capacity Price Forecast | Capacity Watch Blog

Winter Brings New Congestion Risks to Power Prices | Congestion Watch Blog

Northeast’s Inflated Natural Gas and Power Forwards | Energy Watch Blog

RGGI Update on CO2 Data, Pennsylvania, North Carolina & Massachusetts CO2 Auction | Emissions Watch Blog

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