Request a report analyzing ESAI Power’s Pre-Auction Capacity Price forecast for ISO-NE’s Forward Capacity Markets (FCA’s) over the past 8 Capacity Auctions. This report compares our pre-auction forecast with actual FCA results across defined locational deliverability areas (LDA) for the past eight ISO-NE Capacity Auctions – from FCA11 through FCA18.
ESAI Power is actively following the proposed FCA Rule changes under the Capacity Auction Reforms (CAR) Project in ISO-NE, with the next auction for CCP 2028/29. ESAI Power continuously monitors and analyzes the capacity markets in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM and MISO. Capacity market projections incorporate detailed assessments of market drivers including load projections, demand curve parameters, tracking the interconnection queues to forecast new capacity and also assess announced and at-risk power plant retirements, and transmission constraints that impact locational delivery and pricing.
Capacity Watch includes updated supply and demand fundamentals, market rule developments, and policy changes that affect capacity market outcomes. Subscribers also gain access to the Generation Asset Monitor database, providing detailed assessments of projects under development, tracking retirements, and those projects we deem at risk of retirement. The GAM database is published monthly and provides an outlook for the development timeline of new generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM and MISO. For each project, ESAI assigns a “probability of completion factor in percentage terms” that is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions and retirements in each pool.
All facets of capacity markets are analyzed in ESAI Power’s Capacity Watch report. In addition to our pre-auction forecasts, ESAI Power produces insightful market reports and 10-year Capacity outlooks for all capacity zones in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO.