Power Markets & Structured Traders
Traders in the wholesale power markets in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE leverage ESAI Power’s market data and insights to assist in their most critical trading and investment decisions. ESAI Power’s Benchmark Energy reports cover capacity, energy, Class I RECs, emissions, power and natural gas forecasts to provide power markets and structured traders a competitive edge.
Power, Capacity, Emissions and RECs Forecasts
ESAI Power provides an unbiased, informed fundamental view to support power and structured market traders focused on the PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE wholesale power markets. Our market reports, data and analyst insights into complex market dynamics help traders make informed trading decisions in the ever-changing and evolving US power markets.
Objective Analysis for Power Market Traders
Since 2003, ESAI Power has provided traders with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of how market rule changes and regulatory issues impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for Capacity, Energy, Emissions, Power and Natural Gas.
ESAI’s forecasts are published to a client base of private equity investors, IPPs, lenders and traders, so we must remain unbiased. ESAI publishes “the unvarnished truth” in our long-term forecasts. The Generation Asset Monitor tracks the Interconnection Queues to produce a granular plant-by-plant detail to inform our 10-year capacity additions by technology and we also produce power plant retirement assumptions to inform our overall supply and demand forecast.
Trader Benefits
Power Markets and Structured Traders leverage ESAI’s Power market insights to:
- Assess the Supply and Demand balance, load forecasts, new capacity and potential retirements.
- Gain insights into upcoming Capacity Auctions, and long-term Capacity prices.
- Understand the impact that AI and Data Center demand will have on Power and Capacity prices by Zone.
- Analyze Market fundamentals and changes in supply-demand dynamics to forecast upcoming price movements.
- Evaluate RGGI Allowance prices, program rules, state level participation in RGGI, and Emissions Projections to inform trading decisions.
- Stay up to date on regulatory changes and the impact on power, capacity, and carbon prices.
- Assess how market rule changes may increase risk, volatility, and may impact gross revenues over time.
- Gain an unbiased forward price forecast for On-peak power prices, Spark Spreads, heat rates, emissions allowance prices and the impact of transmission changes impacting congestion patterns.
- Form an accurate view of power & environmental market trends and the direction of power prices based on a full understanding of the supply / demand balance.
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Capacity, Energy, and Emissions Market updates
Power markets and structured traders need accurate information to make sound decisions. ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known & expected changes in market rules and operating conditions. Our unparalleled capacity and emissions market auction coverage allows traders to dig into our market assumptions to understand on a deep, granular level how new generation additions, potential retirements or market rule changes may relate to auction trading dynamics and relative shifts in market conditions.
ESAI Power’s Capacity, Power, Natural Gas, Emissions & RECs market forecasts keep power markets and structured trading teams informed on market developments such as changes in load growth projections, major transmission upgrades, changes in market rules and parameters, and AI and data center demand might impact prices over the next decade. With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior experts, power traders have a full suite of tools to support power markets and structured trading.
Power, Emissions & Capacity Markets
Power Markets Trends & Forecasts
ESAI offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York, & New England energy markets. Our forecasts include zonal LMP forecasting developed using dispatch modeling based on current and projected transmission topology and detailed natural gas pricing projections at specific regional gas delivery points.
- In Energy Watch, ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price forecasts for most zones in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE. Our forecasts include monthly On-Peak, 7X24 and Off-Peak power prices, and Spark Spreads for all key zones and hubs.
- Emissions Watch provides regular updates and analysis on major federal, state and regional environmental regulations (e.g., CSAPR, RGGI, state CO2 standards). ESAI regularly evaluates potential implications of these regulations on the future generation mix. We provide an outlook on allowance prices of tradeable allowances, including RGGI and CSAPR.
Capacity Markets
Capacity markets are a source of significant revenues for generation assets. ESAI provides quarterly analysis and insights to support capacity market forecasts for every capacity area across ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, & MISO.
Structured traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on changing supply and demand conditions by tracking key market indicators and potential policy changes.
ESAI closely monitors the ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO capacity markets, including updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation & retirements, shifts in regional transmission impacting capacity areas, and evolving market rules. Additional factors such as market mitigation & queue delays are addressed and outlined in ESAI’s Capacity Watch™ reports.
Traders operating in the bilateral market stay up to date with recent changes in Capacity prices. Our Generation Asset Monitor™ is a detailed database of expected generator retirements and projections for new build projects by technology in each power pool.
Environmental Markets
ESAI produces deep analysis & long-term forecasts for RGGI CO2, RECs, SO2, Annual / Seasonal Nox (CSAPR group 2 & 3), to support environmental products traders.
Renewables Watch™ coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric and storage. For PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE ESAI details the regulatory, interconnection queue challenges, and retirement assumptions that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I RECs, keeping a close eye on renewable energy supply and demand to forecast Class I RECs.
Emissions Watch™ coverage includes RGGI Program analysis and carbon price forecasts at both a state & RTO level. ESAI follows carbon market developments at the fed, regional and state levels that impact the emissions markets. We report on changes to existing regulations (Mercury & Air Toxics, CSAPR & Particulate Matter 2.5) and analyze the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations.
Unbiased Partner for Power Traders
ESAI Power’s market data and insights are used by Power Markets & Structured traders to support their most critical trading decisions. ESAI is well known for objectivity, since we publish to a large subscriber base of investors, IPPs, lenders and traders participating in the markets – we always deliver unbiased, objective power & environmental forecasts to subscribers.
Market forecasts are backed by transparent assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market reports or in excel form for ease of use in Energy revenue and gross margin projections. Market conditions constantly change, which means risk and upside are always on the horizon for well informed traders.
ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, and market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes. Client-specific scenario analysis and custom forecasts can be produced on request on a fixed price, fixed scope basis.
Strategize for Auction Activities
Power markets and Structured traders leverage ESAI Power’s analytics to better understand the supply stack dynamics, movements in the interconnection queue, upcoming retirements, and plants at-risk of retirement to better inform their view of the market supply/demand balance.
Our long-term forecasts are used regularly to validate revenue streams, and energy gross margin forecasts in support of structured trading, monthly spot auctions, as well as seasonal and annual Capacity auction bid strategies.
With over 20-years experience, ESAI has valued the vast majority of assets in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE and has an excellent reputation in the financial markets for sound fundamental power price forecasting.
ESAI informs you of state, regional, and federal level policy developments that impact power and structured trading.
Publications
Capacity Watch™ provides an analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Additionally, this report offers an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO.
Energy Watch™ provides an analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, as well as projections of fuel inputs.
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