Unbiased Energy, Capacity, RGGI & RECs Price Forecasts
ESAI Power provides market and regulatory support to Independent Power Producers (IPPs) operating in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. ESAI Power’s market reports, data and access to our power market experts provide in-depth insights into the complex market and trading dynamics that help IPPs make the difficult investment and trading decisions in the ever-changing and evolving Northeast power markets.
Since 2023, ESAI Power has delivered objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling and a solid understanding of the market rules and regulatory issues that can affect market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy, emissions and RECs. Our research includes clear outlines of forecast assumptions and updates on market rules and regulatory issues that impact price outcomes. Our analyses also evaluates market risks related to upcoming changes in market rules and regulations.
IPPs leverage ESAI Power’s Northeast power market insights to:
- Stay up to date with unbiased near-term & long-term price forecasting
- Understand and manage market and regulatory risks
- Enhance budgeting, planning and forecasting processes
- Assess potential acquisitions
Reliable Near-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting
ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known and expected changes in market conditions. We dive deep into market parameters and regulatory changes to understand how they may impact supply now and over the next decade. ESAI often provides scenario analysis to allow further insights into price responses relative to potential shifts in market conditions.
ESAI Power’s research briefings, long-term forecasts, and monthly data updates keep teams informed of market developments such as changes in the interconnection queue additions and upcoming power plant retirements, interconnection queue delays, growth in renewable resource assumptions, changes in load growth projections, and shifts in market rules and regulations. With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior analysts, Independent Power Producers gain access to a full suite of tools to enhance internal forecasting, financial budgeting processes, and investment decisions.
IPPs leverage ESAI’s comprehensive overview of markets, price forecasts, market data, reports and analyst access to help you forecast more accurately and optimize generation asset revenues.
Energy Markets
ESAI Power offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York, and New England energy markets, including zonal LMP forecasting developed through the use of security-constrained dispatch modeling that is based on current and projected transmission topology, as well as detailed projections of gas pricing at specific regional gas delivery points. ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price forecasts for most zones in the three Northeast power pools in its quarterly Energy Watch™ reports. Short-term, nine-month energy price forecasts are delivered for key zones and hubs in the Energy Watch™ reports.
Capacity Markets
Capacity markets are a source of significant revenues for most generators. Every quarter, ESAI Power provides detailed analysis and insights to support capacity market forecasts for each locational capacity area in the Northeast. ESAI also delivers commentary on capacity market developments and activity in California.
ESAI Power closely monitors all aspects of capacity markets, including updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation and retirements, shifts in regional transmission that impact locational capacity areas, and evolving market rules. Additional factors such as market mitigation are addressed and outlined in ESAI’s quarterly Capacity Watch™ reports.
ESAI Power’s senior analysts are available to clients to provide further insights and color on the analysis provided in Capacity Watch™ reports. Other benefits include our monthly Generation Asset Monitor database, a detailed overview of our interconnection queue projections for new build projects in each power pool, and expected generator retirements delivered in spreadsheet format.
Forecast More Strategically
ESAI’s price forecasts help inform how market rule changes and changes in the supply demand balance will impact energy and capacity markets and the price outcomes that will affect Energy Gross Margin and Revenue projections. ESAI’s Benchmark Energy Research Market forecasts are supported by clear assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market updates or in spreadsheet form for ease of use in revenue projections.
Market conditions, rules and parameters are always changing and that means that risk is always on the horizon for Independent Power Producers. ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, and market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes. Market reports often include scenario analysis of relevant risk factors. Client-specific scenario analysis can also be made available upon request.
Optimize Generation Asset Revenues
Mitigate risks and optimize revenue potential for your existing assets while considering additional investments. With insights and price forecasts that range from weekly to 10 years, generation owners can leverage ESAI Power’s analytics to support corporate development and better position themselves in a competitive market.
With a clear perspective on projected market developments, new opportunities can be evaluated in light of unbiased forecasts and an unvarnished assessment of market and regulatory risks. ESAI’s team will keep you informed of the policy developments at the state and federal level that impact market outcomes and will update you on early developments in the various ISO/RTO committees.
Custom Consulting
ESAI Power’s team of consulting experts has vast experience in advising IPPs and Investors across a wide range of issues including but not limited to:
- Refinancing Support
- Buy-Side Acquisition Support
- Term Loan B Support
- Sell-Side Advisory Services
- Revenue Projections (Gross Margin Analysis)
- Nodal LMP Analysis (Curtailment Assessments)
- Project Specific Analysis of Policy Outcomes
ESAI Power staff has provided expert witness testimony in a number of arenas including FERC proceedings, state utility commission hearings, RTO proceedings, and civil litigation.
ESAI Power’s experts are ready to come alongside your team to provide support for your needs in M&A activities, customized market outlooks, regulatory proceedings, or other specialized market-related studies.
Visit our Consulting page to learn more.
Publications
Capacity Watch™ provides an analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Additionally, this report offers an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO.
Energy Watch™ provides an analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, as well as projections of fuel inputs.
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Please contact us for more information about our research product publications or our consulting services.