Supporting Private Equity Investors in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE
Private Equity and Infrastructure Investors leverage ESAI Power’s market data and insights to assist in their most critical investment decisions. Our objective capacity & energy forecasts help support M&A, valuation models, Energy Gross Margin forecasts, upside and downside scenarios, re-financing transactional support, risk assessments, buying and investing in power plants.
Capacity, RECs, Carbon & Power Price Forecasts
ESAI Power provides and unbiased, informed fundamental energy gross margin forecasts and revenue forecasts to support investments, M&A valuation, re-financing processes, risk assessment and operating support for private equity investors focused on the PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE wholesale power markets. Our market reports and analyst insights into complex market dynamics help investors make investment decisions in the ever-changing and evolving US power markets.
Objective Analysis for Private Equity and Infrastructure Investors
Since 2003, ESAI Power has provided investors with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of how market rule changes, changes in the supply/demand balance, and regulatory issues impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO, & ISO-NE. ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for Capacity, RECs, Carbon, Power and Natural Gas.
ESAI’s forecasts are published to a client base of Private Equity Investors, Infrastructure Investors, Lenders, RTOs and IPPs – and thus we must remain unbiased. ESAI publishes “the un-varnished truth” in our long-term forecasts. Generation Asset Monitor produces a monthly database of granular plant-by-plant detail of the interconnection queues to inform our 10-year capacity additions and upcoming power plant retirement assumptions.
Private Equity Investors leverage ESAI’s Power market insights to:
- Inform M&A investment decisions.
- Validate Asset Valuation Models and future Revenue Projections.
- Produce Energy Gross Margin forecasts.
- Stay up to date on regulatory changes and the impact on long-term power plant revenues.
- Assess how market parameter and rule changes may impact gross revenues over time.
- Conduct effective energy asset analysis.
- Test internal models compared to ESAI’s industry-standard Capacity, Power, RECs and Carbon price forecast benchmarks.
Transactable Energy Asset Analysis
Long-term energy capital investors need accurate information to make sound M&A investment and valuation decisions. ESAI Power’s price forecasts reflect known and expected changes in market rules and operating conditions. Our scenario and sensitivity analysis allow investors to examine our market assumptions to understand, on a deep, granular level, how new generation additions, potential retirements or market rule changes may relate to future price changes and relative shifts in market conditions.
ESAI’s Capacity, RECs, Power, NatGas and Carbon market reports keep investment teams informed of market developments such as generator additions and retirements, growth in renewable resources by tech category, changes in load growth projections, and how market rule and regulatory changes will change prices over the next decade. With access to a comprehensive overview of markets through price forecasts, market data, market reports and access to senior experts, investors have a full suite of tools to support energy asset valuation & management.
Products & Services
Energy Markets
ESAI offers comprehensive views on the PJM, New York, & New England energy markets. Our forecasts include zonal LMP forecasting developed using dispatch modeling based on current and projected transmission topology and detailed natural gas pricing projections at specific regional gas delivery points.
- In Energy Watch, ESAI delivers ten-year zonal energy price forecasts for most zones in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE. Both short term and long-term energy price forecasts are provided for key zones and hubs.
- Transmission Watch delivers an in-depth look at transmission investment and the important challenges facing independent and utility-owned transmission projects.
Capacity Markets
Capacity markets are a source of significant revenues for power plants. ESAI provides in-depth analysis and insights to support capacity market forecasts for every capacity area across ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, & MISO. Protect your investments and capitalize on changing supply and demand conditions by tracking key market indicators and potential policy changes.
ESAI closely monitors the ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO capacity markets, including updates to demand curve parameters, changes in peak load, new generation & retirements, shifts in regional transmission impacting capacity areas, and evolving market rules. Additional factors such as market mitigation & queue delays are addressed and outlined in ESAI’s Capacity Watch reports. ESAI’s senior experts are always available to clients provide insights into our market data and reports. Our Generation Asset Monitor is a detailed database that tracks new build projects in the Interconnection Queues and forecasts power plant retirements in each RTO.
Renewables & Carbon Markets
ESAI produces deep analysis and long-term forecasts for RECs, SO2, Annual / Seasonal Nox (CSAPR group 2 & 3), RGGI CO2 prices to support investment and trading decisions.
Renewables Watch™ coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric and storage. For PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE ESAI details the regulatory, interconnection queue challenges, and retirement assumptions that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I RECs, keeping a close eye on renewable energy supply and demand to forecast Class I RECs.
Emissions Watch™ coverage includes RGGI Program analysis and carbon price forecasts at the state and RTO levels. ESAI follows carbon market developments at the federal, regional and state levels that impact emissions markets. We report on changes to existing regulations (Mercury & Air Toxics, CSAPR & Particulate Matter 2.5) and analyze the potential impacts of new and proposed regulations.
Unbiased Partner for Private Equity and Infrastructure Investors
ESAI Power’s market data and insights are used by investors to support their most critical investment decisions. ESAI is well known on the buy-side because our numbers cannot be bought, since we publish to a large subscriber base of market participants every week, month & quarter – we always deliver unbiased, objective capacity & energy forecasts to subscribers.
Market forecasts are backed by transparent assumptions and are delivered in ESAI’s market reports or in spreadsheet form for ease of use in revenue and margin projections. Market conditions constantly change & that means risk and upside are always on the horizon for investors.
ESAI Power’s market forecasts are based on the most reasonable expectations of future outcomes, and market projections and commentaries include assessments of the range of risk outcomes. Client-specific scenario analysis is produced on request.
Validate M&A Asset Valuations
Private Equity and Infrastructure investors leverage ESAI Power’s analytics to provide a counter-point to seller materials and forecasts. Our long-term forecasts are used regularly to validate revenue streams, and gross margin forecasts in support of M&A transactions, debt financing, and refinancing of energy assets.
Since 2003, ESAI has valued the majority of assets in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE and has an excellent reputation in the financial markets for sound fundamental power price forecasting.
With a clear perspective on projected market developments, new equity investments can be evaluated based upon market forecasts to support revenue & margin projections, considering a deep understanding of the market and regulatory risks.
ESAI keeps you informed of policy developments at the state and fed level that impact asset valuations and updates clients on early developments in the various ISO/RTO committees.
Publications
Capacity Watch™ provides an analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Additionally, this report offers an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO.
Energy Watch™ provides an analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, as well as projections of fuel inputs.
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