Benchmark Energy Research®
ESAI’s Benchmark Energy Research® provides fundamental-based outlooks for private equity investors, lenders, IPPs, and power markets traders to make better investment and trading decisions. Clients receive market updates on important market events such as Capacity Auctions and important new emissions and renewables legislation that may impact prices moving forward. Our proprietary energy models and databases help us produce complete PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE long-term price forecasts for Capacity, Energy, Emissions, RECs and tracking Interconnection queues and retirements. ESAI’s MISO coverage is focused on Capacity and Generation Asset tracking.
Investors leverage Benchmark Energy Research market insights to:
- Make critical investment decisions.
- Conduct effective energy asset revenue & gross margin analysis to inform financial decisions.
- Validate Asset Valuation Models and Capacity and Energy Power price projections.
- Stay up to date with unbiased near-term and long-term price forecasting.
- Understand and manage market and regulatory risks.
- Test analytical models and compare them to industry-standard Capacity, Carbon, RECs, Energy & NatGas price forecast benchmarks.
Our Benchmark Energy Research includes ongoing coverage of the markets, access to the Generation Asset Monitor that tracks every project in the interconnection queues, announced plant retirements, and plants that ESAI deems at-risk of retirement. ESAI’s Analyst Access service provides access to our team of market experts for quarterly market updates or ad-hoc email questions and answers.
Reports
Capacity Watch™ provides financial analysis of capacity markets and capacity policy issues in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO regions. This report includes ESAI’s outlook for regional 10-year capacity prices as well as in-depth analysis of current market issues that affect price outcomes. Our coverage includes pre-auction forecasts, and updated post-auction forecasts along with what the auction results will mean for clearing prices moving forward over the next 10-years. The impacts on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue.
Energy Watch™ report provides a financial analysis of market and policy issues affecting the energy price forecast over a 10-year time period for power & natural gas. Includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM, and forecasts of fuel inputs. The dynamics of market & policy changes are analyzed and impacts on energy prices are assessed. These impacts are placed in the context of high-level benchmark economics of theoretical plants in specific locations. The report provides annual 7×24 data resolution.
Emissions Watch™ provides regular updates and analysis on major federal, state and regional environmental regulations (e.g., CSAPR, RGGI, state CO2 standards). ESAI regularly evaluates potential implications of these regulations on the future generation mix. We provide an outlook on allowance prices of tradeable allowances, including RGGI and CSAPR. Issuance of updates is driven by industry and regulatory developments.
Renewables Watch™ report provides updates on significant policies (state and federal) facing the PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE renewable energy markets. In addition, inputs to ESAI’s Class I REC supply and demand models are updated quarterly to provide timely updates to Class I REC forecasts to inform investment decisions. ESAI also covers federal issues that impact renewable policy and development in the Northeast RTOs.
Transmission Watch™ report provides an in-depth look at transmission investment and development. Regional reliability issues, economic relief and policy drivers in the context of RTO planning processes. Regulatory and policy initiatives, as well as updates on significant projects. We provide detailed quarterly reports that deliver insights into Transmission concerns, financing of projects, key policy changes, and merchant vs. utility build-outs. Transmission-specific data includes major transmission projects that are under consideration in North America.
Our Generation Asset Monitor™ provides an evaluation of the outlook for construction of generation projects and plant retirements in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM & MISO. Each project is assigned a “probability of completion factor in % terms” that is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions and retirements in each pool. The database is published quarterly and available in a basic format that provides a summary overview, or in a fully detailed format to include project by project level details such as project status, queue numbers, project name, developer permit status, financing status, PPA status, etc.
Research Methodology
Energy Asset investment and power trading decisions should always be based upon fundamentally sound inputs and detailed project outlooks. While the demand side of the equation for energy asset valuations and energy pricing is relatively straightforward, getting the supply side data correct relies upon a detailed and accurate understanding of the construction of generation projects, the likelihood of project completion, and energy asset retirements and those at-risk of retirement. Supply forecasts also require a broad understanding of how transmission, emissions, and renewable energy mandates impact capacity and energy price outcomes.
Independent, Unbiased Analysis
Since 2003, ESAI Power has provided private equity infrastructure investors, lenders & IPPs with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO, MISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy, emissions, renewables, transmission & RECs. Our forecasts are published to our client base of generators, investors, regulators, and utilities – and must always remain unbiased. We’re committed to covering these markets consistently in our price forecasts. ESAI is well known for publishing “the un-varnished truth” in our forward curve forecasts.
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