The Near-Term Energy Price Forecast Service provides fundamental-based outlooks for power generation operations & commercial teams and helps energy traders make more informed decisions.
Energy Monthly provides on-peak price forecasts based on expected demand, weather forecasts, transmission outages, and forward gas prices. Congestion Watch analyzes transmission congestion across PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE and assesses underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs Day-Ahead Markets.
Our 3 weekly reports provide short-term forecasts for key hubs, including PJM Western Hub, NY Zones A & J, and ISO-NE Internal Hub.
Near-Term Energy Price Forecast Service Audience
ESAI Power helps investors, generation owners, lenders, developers, utilities, regulators, & energy buyers understand the short-term trends that impact power and natural gas prices.
- Congestion WatchTM assesses congestion drivers & constraints to quantify the impact on the congestion component of LMPs. Our market simulation models help assess changing demand and outages to predict congestion patterns for the following month. Reports are published prior to each month’s FTR auction.
- Energy Monthly provides a 9-months zonal price forecast, look-back analysis of prior month’s pricing dynamics to understand impacts of outages and to update demand conditions.
- Bal-Week & Next-Week reports provide weekly, near-term energy price forecasts for NE HUB, NY Zones J & A, and PJM Western Hub. Includes analyst commentary on how fundamental factors present risk to short-term power prices.
- Natural Gas FundWatchTM is a one-week outlook and analysis of key near-term factors in the natural gas market. Includes a fundamental overview, technical trend analysis, & a view on commodity fund positions on the NYMEX exchange.
Medium-Term Reports
Congestion WatchTM analyzes transmission congestion across the Northeast power systems & analyzes the underlying transmission constraints in the RTOs’ Day-Ahead Markets. Ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast, our monthly congestion report provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO.
Energy MonthlyTM provides a nine-month zonal pricing forecast and discussion of policy changes and other key market influencers in the Northeast regions, plus a natural gas forecast that provides analysis of Henry Hub and regional basis dynamics. The energy forecast put forth each month is based on ESAI and forward fuel forecasts compared with forward market energy prices.
Short-Term Reports
Bal-Week & Next-Week reports are published every Monday and Thursday. They provide weekly forecasts in the key Northeast power markets: PJM Western Hub, New York Zones A and J, & the ISO-NE Internal Hub. The reports provide analyst commentary on expectations for fundamental factors that present risk to short-term power prices, including demand, supply, and congestion.
Natural Gas Fund WatchTM is a one-week outlook and analysis of key near-term factors in the natural gas market. This includes a fundamental overview, a technical trend analysis, and a comprehensive look at the commodity fund (Wall Street traders) positions on the NYMEX exchange. Each of these factors is weighted to provide the client with a near-term bullish/bearish forecast of market price direction.
Research Methodology
Energy Asset investment and power trading decisions should always be based upon fundamentally sound inputs and detailed project outlooks. While the demand side of the equation for energy asset valuations and energy pricing is relatively straightforward, getting the supply side data correct relies upon a detailed and accurate understanding of the construction of generation projects, the likelihood of project completion, and energy asset retirements and those at-risk of retirement. Supply forecasts also require a broad understanding of how transmission, congestion, emissions, and renewable energy mandates impact capacity and energy price outcomes.
Independent, Unbiased Analysis
For 20 years, ESAI Power has provided investors & generation owners with objective analysis based on sound fundamental modeling. With a deep understanding of market rules and regulatory issues that impact market outcomes in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE, ESAI’s reports include price forecasts for capacity, energy, emissions, renewables, transmission & RECs. Our forecasts are published to our client base of generators, investors, regulators, and utilities – and must always remain unbiased. We’re committed to covering these markets consistently in our price forecasts. ESAI is well known for publishing “the un-varnished truth” in our forward curve forecasts.
Order a Free Trial of Our Research Products
Please fill in your contact details, check the box(es) on the right to indicate your preferred complimentary research report, up to a maximum of 3 reports and if you have any comments.
If you have any questions about our free trial process, please contact Tom Bausemer on (781) 460-1227 or [email protected] to order your free trial report.
*Project Evaluation Program (PEP) database with detailed evaluation of generator projects under development and at-risk of retirement not included in free trial for Capacity Watch. ESAI Power grants free trials at its sole discretion. Note: the PEP product can be viewed on a demo basis over zoom or teams. Corporate policy is not to grant access to our most recent reports during a free trial.
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