Capacity Watch Blog

How Low Can PJM Capacity Prices Go? | Capacity Watch Blog

/in /by

Our Q2 Capacity Watch™ provides clients with an in-depth outlook on PJM, ISO-New England, and NYISO Capacity prices. In this blog, we will highlight a portion of the analysis in the PJM section of the recently published Q2 Capacity Watch™. PJM’s recent release of the 2022/23 Base Residual Auction clearing prices surprised many market participants with prices well below expectations. Prices in each LDA cleared significantly lower than historical auctions, and in particular, the 2021/22 BRA.

Read more
Congestion Watch Blog

Transmission Outages in ISO-NE Will Elevate Congestion Potential in NEMA, SEMA & CT | Congestion Watch Blog

/in /by

Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.

Read more
Capacity Watch Graphic

Capacity Watch™ Report Released for Q2 2021

/0 Comments/in /by

Our Q1 issue of Capacity WatchTM came out this week. In this issue, we’re covering results from ISO-New England FCA15 and an outlook for FCA16. In PJM we’re forecasting the BRA clearing prices expected in the upcoming capacity auction. For NYISO, due to a lower forecasted peak load and a drop in the Locational Capacity Requirement (LCR), prices are expected to decline substantially for New York City.

Read more
Energy Watch Blog

Power Forwards in PJM Trend Higher, RGGI CO2 Allowances Increase | Energy Watch Blog

/0 Comments/in /by

June has brought about high temperatures and strong electricity demand to the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE power markets with elevated prices. Northeast power futures reacted quickly and are trading significantly higher. Despite this rally in prices, ESAI’s gas outlook is stable and believes the futures are overvalued. In this blog, we’ll provide a brief update on each of the ISO’s and an update on the RGGI Quarterly Auction (Auction 52).

Read more
Congestion Watch Blog

Elevated Load Levels Culprit for Congestion in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

/in /by

Temperatures across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England are expected to heat up and be the primary driver for congestion in July. Summer heat and potential re-distribution of the load profile due to individuals returning to work will keep eyes focused on demand fluctuations through the month. ESAI Power predicts very minimal generator or nuclear reactor outages in July, ultimately supporting the emphasis on demand levels.

Read more
Congestion Watch Blog

Pennsylvania RGGI CO2 Limits, Illinois Energy Bill, and CSAPR Update | Emissions Watch Blog

/in /by

In this Emissions Watch blog, we provide updates on the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an energy bill introduced in Illinois, the Ozone Season Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), and modifications to the federal Social Cost of Carbon. RGGI Update: Relative to Q1 2020, Q1 2021 emissions in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) footprint were 29 percent higher (excluding new members NJ and VA).

Read more
Energy Watch Blog

PJM Power Prices Likely To Heat Up This Summer | Energy Watch Blog

/0 Comments/in /by

ESAI Power’s summer forecast for power prices in PJM is bullish. Both Day-Ahead and Spot markets should see increased volatility due to stronger loads, robust gas prices, and generation retirements. In this blog, we’ll provide a preview into the ESAI Power Energy Watch bullish forecasts and expected generation changes that will impact energy prices in PJM, NYISO and ISO-New England. The upside potential for delivered natural gas and power prices across the Northeast will keep the ISO markets interesting in the upcoming months.

Read more
Congestion Watch Blog

Higher Loads and Hotter Temps Drive Increased Electricity Demand in ISO New England, PJM & NYISO | Congestion Watch Blog

/in /by

Electricity demand will increase in June as temperatures rise and higher loads become the main driver for ISO New England, PJM and NYISO. Generator maintenance will no longer be a major factor in June. The power generation maintenance season will largely be completed by the end of May, and outage levels will be minimal throughout the summer. Significant transmission work continues in ISO New England, PJM and NYISO.

Read more
Congestion Watch Blog

Net Zero by 2050 Emissions Reduction Mandates in New England | Emissions Watch Blog

/in /by

In today’s blog, we’re providing an excerpt from a recent preview to our next Emissions WatchTM that discusses two new Net Zero by 2050 emissions reduction mandates that were recently signed into law in New England. In Massachusetts, Governor Charlie Baker signed An Act Creating a Next Generation Roadmap for the Massachusetts Climate Policy. Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee signed a Landmark Act on Climate into law on April 10, 2021. Like the Massachusetts Act, it establishes specific emissions reduction mandates.

Read more
Congestion Watch Blog

Increased Electricity Demand in PJM, NYISO & ISO-New England | Congestion Watch Blog

/in /by

Planned generator maintenance across the Northeast region will wind down during May and will largely be completed by the end of the month. Outage-driven congestion will shift to load-driven congestion as higher daytime temperatures increase electricity demand in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England. All three Northeast ISOs have scheduled significant transmission work throughout May. In New England, longer-term transmission outages will increase congestion in NEMA, RI, and SEMA.

Read more