Congestion WatchTM Archives

Congestion Watch GraphicCongestion WatchTM is delivered ahead of each upcoming monthly Firm Transmission Rights (FTR) auction in the Northeast. This monthly congestion report provides month-ahead assessments of the congestion component of zonal LMPs for each Northeast RTO. Congestion WatchTM provides expert insights into key drivers for congestion pricing such as transmission and generation outages, system load and changes to fuel prices.

Visit our Medium-Term Forecasts page to learn more about our Congestion WatchTM and our Energy Watch MonthlyTM reports.

Posts

Congestion Watch Blog

Outage-Related Transmission Constraints to Impact Power Prices in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

Congestion in April will largely be driven by outage-related transmission constraints, as maintenance for both generator and transmission kicks into gear. Electricity demand across the Northeast RTOs bottoms out in April, moderating demand-driven congestion. However, while warmer temperature forecasts moderate April load expectations in New England and New York, warmer-than-normal April weather is likely to trigger some cooling demand and increased electricity consumption in PJM.
Congestion Watch Blog

A New Year (2022) brings New Congestion Risks to PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

High on-peak load levels and gas prices bolster congestion risks in January across ISO-NE and PJM. Winter demand levels are here to stay and are forecasted to be high in every market except for NYISO where temps will be unseasonably warm. Cold-weather seasons are not usually associated with transmission and generator outages, but ESAI has a few outages on our radar that are forecasted to keep all three markets spicy this January.
Congestion Watch Blog

Winter Brings New Congestion Risks to Power Prices | Congestion Watch Blog

The start of winter signals the end of generator maintenance season and a shift away from supply-stack driven congestion towards load and transmission driven congestion. Certain load pocket zones across the Northeast are susceptible to import constraints leading to elevated congestion risk and higher power prices. ESAI expects high natural gas prices to play a key role in December congestion patterns.
Congestion Watch Blog

September Congestion update PJM NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.
Congestion Watch Blog

Transmission Outages in ISO-NE Will Elevate Congestion Potential in NEMA, SEMA & CT | Congestion Watch Blog

Weather forecasts across the Northeast power markets continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer and elevated electricity demand will be the main congestion driver in August. Planned generator maintenance will be minimal; however, forced generator outages during hot summer weather could significantly impact congestion and be an import constraint on areas across the Northeast Power Pools.
Congestion Watch Blog

Elevated Load Levels Culprit for Congestion in PJM, NYISO & ISO-NE | Congestion Watch Blog

Temperatures across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England are expected to heat up and be the primary driver for congestion in July. Summer heat and potential re-distribution of the load profile due to individuals returning to work will keep eyes focused on demand fluctuations through the month. ESAI Power predicts very minimal generator or nuclear reactor outages in July, ultimately supporting the emphasis on demand levels.
Congestion Watch Blog

Higher Loads and Hotter Temps Drive Increased Electricity Demand in ISO New England, PJM & NYISO | Congestion Watch Blog

Electricity demand will increase in June as temperatures rise and higher loads become the main driver for ISO New England, PJM and NYISO. Generator maintenance will no longer be a major factor in June. The power generation maintenance season will largely be completed by the end of May, and outage levels will be minimal throughout the summer. Significant transmission work continues in ISO New England, PJM and NYISO.
Congestion Watch Blog

Increased Electricity Demand in PJM, NYISO & ISO-New England | Congestion Watch Blog

Planned generator maintenance across the Northeast region will wind down during May and will largely be completed by the end of the month. Outage-driven congestion will shift to load-driven congestion as higher daytime temperatures increase electricity demand in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England. All three Northeast ISOs have scheduled significant transmission work throughout May. In New England, longer-term transmission outages will increase congestion in NEMA, RI, and SEMA.
Congestion Watch Blog

Power Generation Outages Peaking in April | Congestion Watch Blog

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Generator outages during the spring maintenance season will peak in April across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-New England, impacting overall congestion patterns and increasing the risk of elevated congestion in load pockets. However, as warmer than normal weather expectations combine with ongoing COVID-19-related demand impacts to moderate electricity demand in April, lower loads will partly offset the impact of planned generator maintenance.